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BTC After the price of bitcoin fell sharply, investors were most concerned about whether the bear market was over. The latest market report released by cryptocurrency investment company BIT on July 17 pointed out that the US$57,700 level that appeared at the end of June may be the end of this round of adjustment. However, not all analysts agree with this view. Although technical indicators provide hope, weak ETF inflows and macroeconomic risks have kept the market generally cautious.
Bitcoin bear market bottom may have occurred
The latest report released by BIT shows that the Elliott Wave analysis shared by the company in June basically met expectations. The company pointed out that the A-B-C adjustment pattern that began in October 2025 has entered its final stage, and the level of approximately US$57,700 that emerged at the end of June may be the bottom of the process. The report said Bitcoin fell from approximately $97,000 to $62,900 at the beginning of the year. It then rebounded to the US$82,000 level in May. BIT regarded this round of rise as a "bear market rebound" and BTC's trend was in line with its forecast. Since then, due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about U.S. monetary policy, Bitcoin has once again faced selling pressure.
In its latest report, BIT admitted that it initially failed to fully consider the impact of tensions between the United States and Iran on inflation and the possible more hawkish stance of new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh than expected. Still, the company emphasized that Bitcoin's long-term price structure remains consistent with previous analysis. The report specifically pointed out that regaining the 21-week moving average is a key technical indicator for returning to the bull market. In addition, the report also mentioned that technical indicators entering oversold areas and weakness in investor sentiment are similar to the signals seen when bottoms formed in past cycles.
CryptoQuant: ETF demand weakens, difficult to rise
Despite the optimism in the market, some analysts are still cautious. CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech said that in particular, the sharp decline in cash Bitcoin ETF inflows should not be ignored. Data shows that the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 will exceed 500,000 BTC, while in 2025 this figure will be approximately 250,000 BTC. By 2026, only about 120,000 BTC will flow into the fund, indicating a significant slowdown in institutional demand.
IT Tech commented: "The most important factor supporting Bitcoin's rise is the demand for ETFs. With demand so weak, it's difficult to support strong bull market expectations." The analyst believes that what the market is now facing is not a favorable tailwind, but strong macroeconomic pressure.
Bitcoin Price Updates
Bitcoin briefly exceeded the $65,000 level after the U.S. released lower-than-expected inflation data. However, this rally failed to last and selling pressure once again emerged. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately US$63,000. In the past 24 hours, the leading cryptocurrency has fallen by about 3%, with a weekly decline of about 2%. BTC prices are still more than 50% below their historical highs. Although BIT's technical analysis suggests that the $57,700 level may be the bottom of the cycle, it seems too early to say that the market has clearly entered a new upward trend. Weak demand for ETFs, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical developments and changes in investor confidence will be the most critical factors determining the direction of Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
