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XRP XRP may usher in a major breakthrough: Q3 seasonal rise resonates with technical signals
After experiencing the challenges at the beginning of the year, XRP may be on the verge of a significant upward trend. The token fell 27.1% in the first quarter and another 22.4% in the second quarter. Today, rare technical patterns overlap with strong seasonal data, which together lead to potential breakthroughs.
Technical indicators imply turning points
The daily chart on TradingView shows that XRP is confined to a declining spreading wedge pattern. In technical analysis, this is regarded as a classic late-stage fundraising model. This pattern usually signals the end of a long-term sell-off and may reverse.
Supporting this view is that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, indicating that selling pressure is weakening. At the same time, bulls managed to hold a partial bottom around $1.05, further strengthening the bullish case.
Small Dictionary: Declining diffusion wedge, a technical chart pattern composed of two downward sloping and gradually diverging trend lines, usually indicating a possible bullish reversal after a long-term decline.
Seasonal and Historical Performance
Data from the Cryptocurrency Data Analysis Platform shows that the third quarter has historically been the most stable growth period for XRP. In the past seven years, XRP has never reported a negative return in the third quarter.
As of now, the token's return rate in July is 4.19%. Historically, midsummer is usually a reliable time to rebound after a sharp decline in June. XRP fell 22.1% in June 2026. After similar declines in previous years, the cryptocurrency rebounded 47.6% in July 2023 and 35% in July 2025, showing strong seasonal pulses of recovery.
| period| in 2023| in 2025| the 2026||------|--------|--------|--------||June return| -18.5% | -22.9% | -22.1% ||July return| +47.6% | +35% | +4.19% |
XRP's median third-quarter return was 25.8%. After six months of sustained price compression, analysts believe this creates significant upside in the coming months.
Key resistance areas and potential targets
XRP is currently trading close to US$1.08. To confirm a break through the wedge pattern and start a new round of gains, bulls need to push prices above the resistance range of $1.12 to $1.18. Breaking through that level would pave the way for medium-term gains, with a target range between $1.45 and $1.60. These forecasts imply an increase of about 50% from current prices.
Broader market stagnation and a temporary slowdown in inflows from spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could limit the rapid upward trend. However, market observers pointed out that continued consolidation within the wedge pattern is laying a solid foundation for the fourth quarter. Historically, XRP's average return in the fourth quarter was as high as 133.3%.
In the past seven years, XRP has never closed negative in the third quarter, and technical signals are now consistent with this seasonal trend, indicating that a potential recovery is in the making.
