Bitcoin tests break through at US$66,000, supply of short-term holders rises

Bitcoin's rebound forms a dense supply cluster of short-term holders, and a breakthrough of US$66,000 will strengthen the technical structure.

Bitcoin's rebound has now formed a dense supply cluster of short-term holders in the US$62,000 to US$65,000 range. If prices continue to exceed US$66,000, local resistance will be cleared and the technical structure of recovery will be strengthened. Glassnode data shows that the broader range of short-term holders has a break-even point of close to $69,000, above the current breakout zone. The sell-off by long-term holders has cooled, in contrast to weak ETF inflows and confirmation of limited spot demand.

Bitcoin is facing a critical on-chain test after recovering from about US$57,000 and approaching the US$66,000 resistance zone. According to Glassnode researcher CryptoVizart, this rebound has refocused recent supply between $62,000 and $65,000. A heat map of the cost base distribution for short-term holders shows that as the recovery from $57,000, a new wave of supply has shifted to new buyers in the $62,000 to $65,000 range.

As of press time, the asset was trading at approximately US$64,733, within the acquisition range formed during the recovery. This structure makes $66,000 the immediate breakthrough level, while $69,000 remains the break-even point for broader short-term holders.

New buyer cost base builds support below US$66,000

Glassnode's short-term holder cost-base distribution heat map shows where active tokens are acquired, with bright areas representing large supply concentrations with similar estimated purchase prices. According to CryptoVizart, the latest heat map shows that tokens sold during the decline changed hands during the rebound, so recent buyers now hold supply between $62,000 and $65,000.

Glassnode uses this range to assess holder behavior because break-even holders tend to respond when the market returns to where they entered. Therefore, this cluster is the first support area below current prices. However, the $66,000 mark does not represent a broader cost base for short-term holders. Glassnode noted in a July 15 report that the average entrance price for buyers over the past five months was close to $69,000.

Thus, US$66,000 reflects a local resistance area associated with recent activity, while US$69,000 represents the average break-even level for the broader group. This distinction distinguishes recent breakthrough tests from broader recovery benchmarks. Glassnode also noted that Bitcoin stayed below its cost base for active investors and short-term holders for about five months, a period the agency described as an unusually long period within its historical deep value framework.

Holders sell and cool down, but spot demand is still insufficient

Despite this long-term weakness, the situation on the chain has become less pessimistic as panic selling by long-term holders begins to ease. Glassnode said selling by older holders had reached a peak in the cycle and then gradually declined. Profit-taking by long-term investors has also largely dried up. At the same time, cumulative trend scores showed buying behavior across wallet sizes around June lows.

These indicators suggest that demand absorbed Bitcoin released during the sell-off and explain why the rebound created a clear supply belt above $62,000. However, continued confirmation of inflows into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has not yet been provided. Redemptions have slowed from June highs, but continued inflows have not yet recovered. Glassnode pointed out that derivatives traders have reduced downward positions, but the adjustment has not been matched by strong buying in the spot market.

At the same time, the macro environment remains restrictive. Bitcoin responded positively to weakening U.S. inflation data, but the 10-year real yield remains close to its 2026 high of 2.4%. The dollar has also remained above its 200-day moving average since May. Higher real yields reduce the relative attractiveness of non-yielding assets, including digital assets.

The current market structure is concentrated at three key levels: the US$62,000 to US$65,000 range constitutes near-term support, US$66,000 is a partial breakthrough threshold, and US$69,000 is a broader break-even point. This framework will see breaking through the two resistance levels mentioned above as confirmation of strengthening recovery conditions, and if blocked at $66,000, the market will remain below the upper boundary of the cumulative cluster.