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BTC What to Know
CryptoQuant's momentum model remains moderately bullish, but the realization of price indicators turns Bitcoin's overall market outlook bearish.
Bitcoin was trading below the main moving average, and rising futures activity contrasted with neutrality in spot demand, highlighting the persistent structural weakness in the market.
The realized price age range is still upside down, indicating a lack of confidence in buyers in the near future, while long-term holders maintain a stronger position advantage in the Bitcoin network.
Analysts warn: Bitcoin rally lacks structural support
CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain warned that Bitcoin's recent rally still lacks the structural strength needed to support a broader bullish trend.
The analyst pointed out that even though the Bitcoin price climbed to near US$64,800 and the momentum indicator improved, another indicator on the chain turned the market outlook from moderately bullish to bearish.
Bitcoin is trading at around $64,792 after rising about 1.6% in the past week. CryptoOnchain explains that the market has reached a "decision boundary" where improved momentum conflicts with long-term valuation signals. As a result, traders face a market with stronger price movements but limited structural confirmation.
Analysis shows that CryptoQuant's seven-signal momentum model currently gives moderately bullish readings, with four of the seven signals bullish. Higher open interest and stronger MACD readings supported this view. However, after adding the crossing of the price age range, the eight-signal model formed turned the overall consensus into a bearish one. As a result, the model reduced the recommended market exposure from 100% to 30%.
Implementing the price model sends a warning signal, although prices have rebounded.
According to CryptoOnchain analysis, the main disagreement does not come from Bitcoin's recent price trend, but from its underlying chain structure. Although Bitcoin has rebounded from recent lows, the realized price age range remains bearish.
The analyst pointed out that four of the five age range pairs are still upside down. In addition, the largest deviation occurred between coins held for 1 to 3 months and coins held for 6 to 12 months. Since January, the margin has been approximately 26.3% lower than long-term holders, indicating that buyers have not regained dominance in the near future.
In addition to on-chain data, Bitcoin also trades below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. These two moving averages still form a dead fork, posing significant technical resistance above current prices. At the same time, open interest has risen to about 0.74 standard deviations above normal levels, reflecting a recovery in futures participation. However, Binance spot flow remains largely neutral, indicating that leveraged activity is growing faster than direct buying demand.
Conclusion
CryptoOnchain's analysis shows that improvements in Bitcoin's momentum have not yet repaired its overall market structure. Until the price age range returns to normal and stronger spot demand supports the rebound, structural resistance will remain a key factor affecting Bitcoin's next major trend.
