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BTC Analysts: Waiting for the bottom of the Bitcoin four-year cycle can be costly
Analyst Doctor Profit said Bitcoin investors waiting for the traditional four-year cycle to bottom in September or October may be on the wrong side of the market. Although the four-year cycle worked "almost perfectly" at the top, analysts now believe the situation is reversing.
Catalyst for October
In a recent post on Platform X, Doctor Profit believes Bitcoin will not fall below $50,000, although he pointed out that around $54,000 is an important major liquidity area. "There is a lot of liquidity around $54,000, which cannot be ignored," he said, estimating that falling from current levels to that level means about 15% downside. Based on this risk-reward ratio, he believes that it is reasonable to gradually open positions now, but "we have to do it step by step, not all positions at once." The analyst also noted that he does not expect the next round of sharp gains to begin immediately.
Doctor Profit further explained that the market may reflect the widely expected bottom of the cycle in advance, while noting several key developments that could boost market sentiment before then. For example, the planned launch of tokenized stocks through the infrastructure of major financial institutions including BlackRock, the New York Stock Exchange, the S & P 500, Nasdaq and DTCC. He said the plan is expected to move forward in October after early market activities effectively tested the tokenization platform.
Doctor Profit also cited rumors that the CLARITY bill could be passed in August, which would be another potential catalyst. He added that regulatory clarity will make it easier for institutions to enter the cryptocurrency market and accelerate the tokenization process. However, market forecasters have been less optimistic about the bill's prospects recently as its chances of passage have declined in recent days.
ETF maintains a positive trend
After eight consecutive weeks of large-scale capital outflows, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF continues to recover and once again achieves a net inflow week. According to data compiled by SoValue, the funds have attracted more than $200 million in funding so far in July, continuing the positive trend that began in mid-month. Last week alone, net inflows were approximately $76 million.
