Peter Brandt predicts the end of the Bitcoin bear market

Senior market analyst Peter Brandt believes there is still room for Bitcoin's next major correction

Despite the recent rebound, many traders are still concerned about whether there is a "bottom of the cycle" near the current price range, but senior market analyst Peter Brandt believes that there is still room for Bitcoin's next major correction. In an interview, Brandt locked the expected low on October 4, 2026, arguing that markets rarely bottom out without the pressure and capitulation sentiment that usually occurs when market sentiment is only "neutral", when it is missing.

As of press time, the Bitcoin transaction price was US$63,661. Brandt takes a more cautious view: He said prices could fall below $50,000 and could even enter the high range of $48,000 to $49,000 before cyclical lows are established.

Core Points

Peter Brant expects Bitcoin to bottom out on October 4, 2026, viewing it as a turning point in the cycle.
He warned that Bitcoin may need to fall below $50,000 for buyers to gain enough confidence to reverse the trend.
Brandt said that major bottoms in history have often been accompanied by panic and high volume rather than neutral sentiment.
He is skeptical of the continued rotation of funds into artificial intelligence stocks and recommends balancing risks between Bitcoin and precious metals.
Brant predicts that the Bitcoin cycle will peak in 2029, with an estimated range of $250,000 to $300,000.

Why Brant is Waiting for More Pain

Brandt acknowledges that it is difficult to accurately predict the specific date of market lows, but he has long stuck with his October forecast for cyclical lows. His argument revolves around price range expectations and the fact that bottoms often form when traders are forced to reassess positions. He said Bitcoin could test levels below $50,000 and could trade in the high $40,000 range before establishing his expected cyclical low. Brandt also pointed to Bitcoin's historical retracement, with every major bear market since its birth having seen a correction of 80% or greater. He linked this pattern to his views on how the downside of the current cycle might go if precedent followed.

While many market participants seem to believe the market is close to a turning point near $60,000, Brandt believes that current levels of optimism are still too high for a true bottom. "The mood is neutral at the moment. The market will not bottom out in neutral sentiment. The market bottomed out amid panic and volume." In Brant's framework, a bottom forms when enough participants abandon trading-when the most determined holders are forced out and new demand becomes possible. He contrasted "neutral" conditions with the emotion-driven selling that usually accompanies surrender.

Brant said: "Those who have said that Bitcoin has a bottom will at some point give up Bitcoin, admit defeat, say we are done with Bitcoin, we move to other assets, and the Bitcoin phenomenon is over."

Artificial intelligence optimism and cryptocurrency expectations timeline

Brandt also refuted the view that the recent strength of AI-themed transactions is permanently diverting funds away from Bitcoin. While some suggest that the artificial intelligence boom is draining liquidity from the broader cryptocurrency landscape, he does not believe such transactions can continue to grow indefinitely. In his view, investors who are actively pursuing artificial intelligence today may not feel rewarded a few years later. He did not provide a specific benchmark for this judgment, but described the asset allocation he would make if he had additional funds at current prices: 50% Bitcoin and 50% precious metals.

Brant's reasons are twofold. First, he believes precious metals are closer to the bottom of the price, which means entry timing may rely less on waiting for macro-driven liquidation events. Second, he predicts that Bitcoin may be closer to a time-based inflection point-meaning the market may need to undergo a period of adjustment before cyclical lows arrive, rather than immediately hitting bottom at current levels.

This distinction is crucial for traders and investors who decide how to express their beliefs during a pullback. If Brandt is right, the wait may not just be "buy lower" but may also be waiting for the moment when the seller finally runs out of strength to buy.

Forecast for Bitcoin Peak and Comparison with Major Forecasts

Brant's comments were not limited to expected cyclical lows. He expects the next major peak for Bitcoin to be in 2029, with an estimated price range of $250,000 to $300,000. In his vision, the market would have about a year to climb up from that peak range and move towards the larger goals frequently discussed by influential figures in the ecosystem. Brant's framework also mentions widely circulated and more ambitious long-term expectations. He pointed out that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Ark Invest CEO Cathy Wood had predicted a 2030 price target of $1 million. If Bitcoin does reach Brandt's 2029 peak range, his timeline suggests that rapid appreciation will still be needed to bridge the gap with the 2030 $1 million narrative.

For readers, the key contradiction is not whether a single goal is "right", but that different predictions imply different rhythms. The peak of range volatility then accelerates upwards, with different risk dynamics than a steady gradual climb-especially for traders managing leverage, holding time and event-driven exposures.

What to watch for before the October argument is verified

Brant's argument depends on two practical signals: whether Bitcoin experiences the panic and volume that have often accompanied major cyclical lows in history, and whether market sentiment has truly shifted from neutral to surrender. The most important question for investors is not just how prices will move next, but whether market behavior reflects forced selling rather than selective bargain-hunting.