Bitcoin nears seven-week high, stocks weigh tariff plans rather than Iran risk

Bitcoin continues its rally, approaching seven-week highs, as stocks weigh tariff plans over Iran risk

Bitcoin extended its early rally at the opening on Wall Street, following a broad rally in risky U.S. assets despite new geopolitical and tariff-related news. TradingView data shows that BTC/USD is approaching US$67,000 and is close to a seven-week high. For traders, what is striking is that neither the latest escalation in the U.S. -Iran situation nor the new round of discussions on international trade tariffs have substantively disrupted the momentum of the cryptocurrency market. Instead, price movements suggest that participants tend to believe that any disruption is likely to be temporary-at least for now.

Key Points

Bitcoin moves towards $67,000 and threatens to hit a multi-week high, while stocks remain firm during U.S. trading hours. The escalation of tensions over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has been accompanied by a strengthening of risky assets rather than a sell-off. The reported U.S. tariff plan could have been a headwind in speculative markets, but traders seemed to expect it to be resolved. Analysts warn that Bitcoin needs to regain its simple 21-week moving average to credibly challenge the broader market bear market structure.

Geopolitical escalation and tariff rhetoric fail to cool risk appetite

According to TradingView data, BTC/USD approached US$67,000 during the trading session, and the momentum it started earlier seems to be continuing. The relative resilience of cryptocurrencies coincides with the strong trading of U.S. stock index futures. At the same time, the day's headlines pointed to the conditions that typically support "risk-averse" behavior. The U.S. -Iran conflict escalated further, with Iran attacking targets at U.S. Amazon facilities in Bahrain in response to the U.S. strike, with reports that the oil channel in the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. In commodity markets, geopolitical pressures are reflected in crude oil prices: WTI crude oil rose to its highest level in more than a month, close to US$85 a barrel, which is also reflected in TradingView's WTI CFDs chart. In terms of policy, multiple media reports said that President Donald Trump plans to introduce a new 10% international trade tariff. The proposal was described as a follow-up to the 50% measure imposed on Canada earlier this week. Historically, tariff uncertainty may drag on overall risk sentiment, but cryptocurrency traders do not appear to have shown continued caution. Instead, comments from market participants indicate that they expect the situation to eventually resolve in a way that benefits the market. For example, YouTube host Crypto Rover summed up the mainstream view in a post on X, writing: "The market is pricing peacefully."

Stock market becomes the focus, macro risks face test

While cryptocurrencies remain strong, some investors remain confident in the short-term direction of the stock market. Caleb Franzen, head of macro analysis resource Cubic Analytics, posted on X that he had "no fear or concern" about S & P 500 futures and described the current situation as supportive. Still, optimism is not universal. Senior banking leaders, including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, sounded cautious, warning that the market is not pricing risk aggressively enough for possible future scenarios. The comparison highlights the tensions faced by investors: As long as participants believe the outcome will not be as severe as feared, risky assets may continue to rise while the underlying risks are real.

Technical pressure point: 21-week trend line

Regarding the specific direction of Bitcoin, attention has shifted from short-term resistance to longer-term moving average benchmarks. Keith Allen, co-founder of Material Indicators, takes a more cautious view of the short-term outlook, arguing that a bear market may remain until BTC confirms a stronger trend. Allen pointed to a "golden cross" on Monday involving simple 21st and 50th moving averages, but emphasized that such signals on lower time frames do not necessarily negate broader downtrends. He warned in his analysis on X that bear markets don't always look like bear markets-especially when price movements fluctuate but no trend is confirmed. According to Allen, the key condition is whether Bitcoin can regain its simple 21-week moving average. He wrote that macro trends will be challenged only when BTC breaks through that level, noting that until then,"the bear market pattern remains intact." As of press time, the 21-week SMA was quoted as $69,720, a figure that is also consistent with Bitcoin's 2021 all-time high. More importantly, regaining this long-term trend line not only means a rebound, but also suggests a shift in the way the market prices long-term risk. Allen also admitted there was "no real resistance" before $67,250, which helps explain why traders are willing to push prices higher even amid macro uncertainty. However, if the rally is blocked at the long-term moving average level, the lack of immediate resistance near $67,000 does not guarantee subsequent gains.

What should Bitcoin focus on next

As BTC approaches the $69,000 region, traders may now be concerned about whether prices can gather momentum near the 21-week SMA region of $69,720. If Bitcoin fails to regain that threshold, analysts like Keith Allen believe the market may still operate in a bear market structure-even if the rebound continues to occur in the short term.