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BTC Bitcoin returns to the historical bottom signal, and technical indicators point to the accumulation area.
Although some indicators on the chain still imply the possibility of further decline, the technical form currently displayed by Bitcoin has repeatedly marked the formation of a market bottom.
Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez pointed out in his latest analysis that indicators such as MVRV and cumulative value destruction days still place Bitcoin's potential cycle bottom in the range of US$40,000 to US$50,000. However, the asset's monthly chart currently takes on a technical pattern that has been repeated at the end of the past few bear markets.
Rare technical triple signal reproduction
According to Martinez's observation, this pattern consists of three important signals triggering simultaneously: the monthly relative strength index fell back to about 43.65, the Chandler momentum swing indicator fell to about-71, and Bitcoin tested its 50-month moving average.
This combination of signals has coincided with significant long-term bottoms in the past three market cycles. For example, in March 2015, the signal appeared when Bitcoin was trading at $235. Although prices briefly fell to $162 since then, Martinez said the signal heralded a subsequent macro rise of 8300%.
A similar pattern reappeared in January 2019, when Bitcoin prices approached $3333, slightly above the cyclical low of $3124 set a month ago, before starting a 1911% rally. The same technology combination also emerged in December 2022, when Bitcoin was priced at $16270, just above the cycle bottom of $15473, while hovering near the 50 moving average. A 675% rise followed, the analyst said.
Interestingly, Bitcoin's correction last month to US$58000 has once again triggered this historic technological form.
According to analysis, the monthly RSI has now fallen below 43.65, the Chandler Momentum Swing indicator has cooled to-71, and Bitcoin is trading near its 50-month moving average. Martinez admitted that on-chain indicators still leave room for Bitcoin to retest the $40,000 to $50,000 range, which he described as "sweeping the bottom of CVDD." But he pointed out that the current technology portfolio already represents a dominant area of accumulation.
Based on this combination of signals, Martinez said: "Moving attention away from short positions to spot bitcoin accumulation provides a very favorable risk-reward ratio at current levels."
Buying Opportunities
Martinez is not the only analyst who sees the current market as a buying opportunity. Cryptocurrency analyst Doctor Profit also recently pointed out that investors waiting for the bottom of the traditional four-year cycle, expected in September or October, may miss the opportunity. Although he admitted that there was still a large liquidity area around $54000 and said Bitcoin could fall another about 15% from current levels, he did not expect the asset to fall below $50000.
Doctor Profit recommends that rather than waiting for a lower price, it is better to gradually accumulate Bitcoin rather than invest it in one time. He also said the next major rally was unlikely to begin immediately. The analyst said there were several upcoming events that could strengthen market sentiment before assets hit expected cyclical lows.
These events include the launch of tokenized stock plans involving BlackRock, the New York Stock Exchange, the S & P, Nasdaq and DTCC. He also mentioned speculation that the CLARITY Act could pass in August.
