Solana's price range fluctuates, and chain growth continues to rise

SOL is consolidating in the range of US$74.00 to US$79.40, and indicators on the chain continue to grow.

SOL is currently in a consolidating range between US$74.00 and US$79.40, a range that has been maintained since the July 8 correction. The 50-cycle EMA and the 200-cycle EMA meet near the current price, with the RSI at 41.72, and the MACD is tending to form a bearish cross.

DeFi's total locked position (TVL) on Solana is US$4.962 billion, RWA's active market value is US$1.78 billion, and stablecoin supply reaches US$16.425 billion. Helius CEO Mert Mumtaz believes the network's steady expansion in payments, forecasting markets and RWA could make Solana the largest on-chain economy within a year.

4-hour chart: Prices test repeatedly between key resistance and support

On the 4-hour chart, SOL traded at US$76.18, down 1.92% on the day, after encountering a retreat in resistance around US$79.40 for the second time this week. This trend keeps prices locked in the range formed since the July 8 reversal. Although both sides of the range have been tested four times, neither boundary has been breached.

The upper boundary near US$79.40 was tested in gains on July 15 and July 21-22, while the lower boundary near US$74.00 hit lows twice in shocks on July 9-14. Four rejections in the same price area are not a coincidence that traders can ignore. It reveals where pending orders are located and also shows that both buyers and sellers currently lack enough confidence to drive a breakthrough.

What is more noteworthy about this interval is its correspondence with the Fibonacci grid. From the June 25 low of US$64.11 to the July 4-5 high of US$83.92 as the measurement range, the 23.6% correction level is at US$79.24, almost exactly where resistance has suppressed prices twice. The 50% correction level is at $74.01, which also almost coincides with the support area. The two horizontal lines drawn independently from price behavior, so close to the established Fibonacci level, are a strong convergence signal that traders should take seriously.

Moving average system: The 50 and 200 EMA tend to coincide

The 50-cycle EMA is at 77.08, and the 200-cycle EMA is at 76.45, which basically overlap around the current price. The previous 50-cycle EMA broke above the 200-cycle EMA around July 1, confirming a medium-term uptrend, which was maintained during the subsequent rise to US$83.92 and correction. But over the past few trading sessions, the two moving averages have leveled off each other, and the 50-cycle EMA is now moving downward closer to the 200-cycle EMA after several months away.

This is not a bearish signal in itself, it is closer to the trend stopping accelerating and waiting for a breakthrough in a certain direction of the range. If the 50-cycle EMA breaks below the 200-cycle EMA again, the medium-term trend will turn bearish; until then, the uptrend is still technically there but no longer plays a significant role.

RSI and MACD both point in the same direction

The RSI has dropped from a signal line reading of 56.00 to 41.72, and the overall pattern shows that the high point of each rebound attempt is decreasing rather than deviating from price. There are no hidden bullish signals here, the RSI just follows the price down.

The MACD line is at-0.19, the signal line is at 0.15, and the histogram is at 0.34 but is shrinking rapidly. Several candles have turned from green to red before. The two lines are converging towards a bearish cross. These indicators did not break the range, but confirmed that sellers had regained short-term control within the range.

Indicator readings and signals: The price (4-hour close) was US$76.18, down 1.92% intraday, in the middle of the range; the 50/200 EMA were 77.08 and 76.45 respectively, tending to converge and the trend is flattening; the RSI (14) was 41.72, below the signal line of 56.00, weakening momentum; The MACD line/signal line/histogram is-0.19/0.15/0.34 respectively, the histogram is contracting and a bearish cross is forming.

Key level to determine direction

Closing below $74.00 will open up space for the next technically significant level-the 61.8% pullback level of $71.68. If we recover $79.40 and stand firm, the July high will come back into view and effectively offset the developing bearish momentum signals on the RSI and MACD. Until either occurs, the current trend can be seen as a retest of the middle of the range. The new directional trend needs to first clearly break through one side of the boundary.

Stability coin supply and RWA activity are still climbing

Although the 4-hour chart shows hesitation, Solana's basic DeFi metrics are clearer. According to DefiLlama, Solana DeFi's TVL is US$4.962 billion, and the market value of stablecoins on the network has grown to US$16.425 billion, one of the largest of all chains. RWA has an active market capitalization of US$1.78 billion, a category that barely existed on Solana two years ago and has now become one of the fastest-growing areas of the network.

Daily on-chain costs are US$505,290, and chain revenue is US$52,762, while application-level activities are much larger: application costs reach US$7.16 million in the same 24 hours, and application revenue is US$3.4 million. DEX transaction volume was US$1.64 billion, and perpetual contract transaction volume was US$1.165 billion. Both figures far exceed chain-level fee data and point to places where actual use is concentrated. The 24-hour net inflow was US$29.43 million, and the number of active addresses that day reached 2.19 million.

Different perspectives on interpreting Solana's trajectory

Helius CEO Mert Mumtaz has believed for months that this steady chain growth means more than simply adding up the parts. He described a scenario in which Solana gradually gained momentum through a series of independent releases, and mentioned World's on-chain prediction market, Backpack's expanding asset list, Helius providing institutions and payment providers with the tools they need, improvements in wallet infrastructure, and steady growth in lending and RWA activity.

Mert predicts that Solana will become the largest on-chain economy. "I do see a very feasible path for Solana to go on another very slow but very sustained rise as these products continue to be released," he said. His views suggest that traders who focus only on short-term chart levels may miss out on larger trend shifts. He believes that there may be a point in about a year, when focusing only on the TradingView candle chart means ignoring the fact that Solana has quietly become the largest economy on the chain.

This timeline is speculation rather than a prediction based on data. But the components he mentioned-stablecoin supply, RWA growth, DEX and perpetual contract trading volume-are now measurable and have been climbing upwards independently of price behavior within SOL's current range.