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Following
BTC Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 1.6% on Friday as its latest price correction accelerated after the open on Wall Street.
Key points:
Downward pressure on Bitcoin prices has intensified due to multiple macro unfavorable factors. U.S. Treasury yields further pushed the Fed's interest rate expectations to turn hawkish.
BTC price analysis found that Binance's "crash protection team" was trying to support the market.
Analysis warns that U.S. Treasury yields are now "well above" target
Data from TradingView shows that BTC/USD is approaching US$64,000, making it difficult for bulls to hold on to recent gains.
One-hour chart of BTC/USD.
Geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic headwinds have put pressure on the cryptocurrency market and weakened appetite for risky assets.
Trading firm Mosaic Asset Company said rising U.S. Treasury yields were a key driver of the sell-off. "Although the consumer inflation report was weaker than expected, the yield curve showed large fluctuations across periods," the company wrote in reference to the latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report. Mosaic pointed out that two-year yields are particularly likely to affect the prospects of changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate, while raising interest rates can cause shocks to risky assets. "The two-year yield, which tends to lead the fed funds rate, is currently at 4.31%, well above the Fed's target range," the company continued.
Weekly chart of U.S. two-year Treasury yields.
The latest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the market still expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged next week, while counting a 0.25% rate hike in September into the price, believing this to be one of two expected rate hikes before the end of 2026. Mosaic added that these expectations are "putting downward pressure on equity indexes."
Comparison of probability of target interest rates at the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting (screenshot).
Bitcoin price "crash protection team" is making a comeback
During continued market monitoring, cryptocurrency trader Killa said that BTC is repeating a familiar short-term trading pattern. He said on the X platform: "The textbook-style setting of $BTC. I have seen this situation many times." He repeated a post from early June that pointed to the existence of an active "plunge protection team" on the largest cryptocurrency exchange. The chart accompanying the post shows that there are multiple layers of buying liquidity below spot prices, and its holders may not intend to let these pending orders close.
BTC/USDT charts and order book liquidity data.
Analytical account Wealthmanager focused on US$64,000, warning that a break below that level would "overturn" the short-term market structure.
Meanwhile, trader and analyst Rekt Capital further strengthened its view that BTC/USD is repeating the behavioral pattern of the 2022 bear market, being rejected at the 50-month indexed moving average (EMA) of $65,950. He concluded: "Bitcoin does not provide any evidence to the contrary. Still following the historical trend of 2022."
Monthly chart of BTC/USD, including 21 and 50EMA.
