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Following
BTC Bitcoin's second hit of US$67000 failed, and short-term downside risks intensified.
Bitcoin encountered a second rejection at the US$67000 mark, which increased its short-term downside risks. At the same time, its weekly random RSI indicator shows that the market may enter a longer-term bottoming phase. If this resistance level cannot be recovered, the price may further test down to $62000,$60000 or even $58000. The previously expected cyclical low area of $45000 to $55000 is still at the speculative level.
Bitcoin oversold signal suggests a bottom-building process or longer
Bitcoin's weekly random RSI has entered oversold territory, but this signal may not mean that a market bottom will appear immediately. Analysis pointed out that before Bitcoin finally established a bear market bottom, this indicator had persisted in the oversold area for several months in previous market cycles.
This chart compares Bitcoin's current trend with the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 market cycles. In these two historical cycles, when the random RSI indicator fell into the low range, prices either continued to fall or entered a volatile consolidation until they hit the bottom of the broader cycle.
Analysts 'forecasts show that the current bottoming phase may continue until the end of 2026. The chart positions possible lows near the $45000 to $55000 region, but the specific price level and time point are still speculative.
Historical cycles show that it usually takes about 12 months to get from the main peak to the final low. Applying the same pattern to the current cycle means that markets are likely to continue to experience volatility and explore further before a sustained recovery begins.
However, random RSI oversold does not guarantee that Bitcoin will inevitably continue to fall. This indicator measures market momentum rather than intrinsic value, and may also remain low as prices move sideways or begin to rebound.
For now, the market landscape points to a longer bottom-building process rather than a confirmed reversal signal. Before the long-term outlook improves, Bitcoin needs to hold on to key support levels and form a clear series of higher highs and higher lows.
Bitcoin was blocked for the second time by US$67000, once again facing a sell-off risk
Bitcoin encountered resistance for the second time near the volume control point (US$67000), which increased the risk of another sharp decline. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin had previously triggered a 13% decline after encountering obstacles in the same region, making this price critical to the short-term direction of BTC.
The volume control point refers to the price level with the highest volume within a specific display range. Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to recover the area, indicating that sellers are still active around $67000.
The chart shows that BTC has fallen back to around $64000 after the recent obstacles. If prices continue to operate below $67000, the current local bearish structure will be maintained and may turn market attention to support levels near $62000 and $60000.
A larger decline could hit a low at the end of June (about $58000). It had previously fallen from US$67000 to the region, a drop of nearly 14%, but history may not repeat itself.
However, if Bitcoin can break through and stabilize at $67000, turning it into effective support, the bearish scenario will be weakened. This will overturn the recent blocked pattern and could reopen upside to resistance levels of $71000 and higher.
For now, US$67000 remains the key decisive level. If this price cannot be recovered, downward pressure will continue; and once a breakthrough is confirmed, it means that buyers have regained control of the market.
