Microstrategy did not buy Bitcoin for the fourth week in a row, and Siler once again hinted

On Sunday, July 26, Michael Siler released Strategy's Bitcoin position chart on Platform X, with the caption reading: "We need to change color." This is the fifth such post he has posted since the company disclosed his latest Bitcoin purchase on June 22.

MSTR shares are traded as a leveraged alternative to Sylar's Bitcoin purchases, and dozens of finance companies have followed his model. For the first time in two years, Strategy has not added a single bitcoin to its portfolio for four consecutive weeks.

Siler's Sunday chart no longer foreshadows Monday's Bitcoin purchases

For years, Siler's Sunday night chart has been a reliable harbinger of Monday disclosures of 8-K documents that typically reveal new Bitcoin purchases. But this signal is weakening recently. He posted on June 28 that "we need more charts," but that was actually a new capital framework. Then, on July 5, a day before Strategy launched its largest bitcoin sale in history, he posted another post. At the end of November, Siler launched the "green dot" statement a day before Strategy announced that it would buy US$1.44 billion in reserves with 130 bitcoins. On January 4, he posted a post implying whether he would buy Bitcoin or cash, asking fans: "Orange or green?"

Sunday's post triggered a lot of interaction, receiving more than 11,000 likes and more than 1400 replies. However, Siler never explained the meaning of the caption, and the company confirmed that no transaction occurred.

On June 27, Strategy's market value fell below 1 as the ratio of its Bitcoin assets (i.e. corporate mNAV). MSTR's trading price has fallen below the value of the Bitcoin it holds. Buying more bitcoin by selling shares no longer increases the bitcoin content per share, but instead shrinks it. At the same time, Strategy's preferred stock dividend (the STRC rate has risen to 12%) must be paid in cash.

Strategy has made a total of 113 purchases, holding a total of 843,775 bitcoins, with an average purchase cost of US$75,476 per coin, and a total investment of approximately US$63.69 billion. Based on the bitcoin price of US$65,283.96, the current value of this position is approximately US$55.1 billion, with a floating book loss of approximately US$8.6 billion.

The capital framework formulated at the end of June created new exports for cash. The framework approved $1 billion in digital credit securities buybacks,$1 billion in common stock buybacks, and up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin sales. On July 23, Strategy changed the way it calculates mNAV, warning that previous data are no longer comparable. MSTR shares closed at $91.67 on Friday, down from $94.85 a week ago.

Strategy injects cash into reserves

Strategy is still in the process of raising capital, but is temporarily putting the proceeds on hold. The company sold 2,732,318 shares of MSTR stock between July 13 and July 19 for a net gain of $263.5 million, but did not purchase any bitcoins. Its July 20 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission showed new dollar reserves at $3.225 billion. The reserve currently covers approximately 1.8 years of dividend commitments.

Space for continued fundraising is not a constraint. Strategy can sell up to US$23.53 billion in additional common stock based on its existing on-floor offering plan. Therefore, suspending purchases is an option, not a depletion of funds. The suspension came after Strategy received a warning in June. The warning noted that reserves have fallen by about 38% since the beginning of 2026. Strategy's dividend obligations expanded roughly fourfold to $1.2 billion in six months, while dividend coverage plunged from more than seven years to about 14 months. Some analysts said: "Buying as long as funds are available is not a strategy, but a practice of accumulating chips at cyclical highs." Instead, he recommends using a model-based approach to timing future buying.

The next key data point will be Thursday, July 30, when Strategy will release its second-quarter earnings after the U.S. market closes that day.