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BTC 
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XRP Bitcoin falls to 11-day low, markets wait for Fed decision
On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell to an 11-day low of $63,414 as traders prepared for the Fed's interest rate decision, and the market no longer believes the decision is a foregone conclusion.
Key points:
Bitcoin fell 2.3% in early trading in Asia, the lowest level since July 16, while Ethereum (ETH) fell 3.6%.
Forecast markets show that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points is close to 27%, and bets on both platforms exceed US$140 million.
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of US$465.26 million on July 23 and 24, ending seven consecutive days of capital inflows.
Bitcoin prices fall at the beginning of the Federal Reserve meeting
The decline occurred in early Asian trading, and Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since July 16. Ethereum fell 3.6% over the same period, while Ripple (XRP) fell approximately 4.4%. The Federal Open Market Committee began two-day talks on Tuesday and issued a statement at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, with Chairman Kevin Walsh to speak in a half hour.
Institutional funds began to withdraw before this week. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF posted a net outflow of $465.26 million on July 23 and 24, ending seven consecutive days of capital inflows, of which BlackRock's IBIT contributed nearly $415 million.
Analysts point to US$62,000 support
Carolyn Moron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said Bitcoin is under pressure as the probability of interest rate hikes rises and concerns about artificial intelligence-related credit risks intensify. She pointed out that $62,000 is the next level to watch, and strong support is closer to $60,000.
Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, a forecast that is far from market consensus. Polymarket traders believe that the probability of remaining unchanged is 73.4%, and the probability of raising interest rates is 26.6%, while the probability given by the Kalshi platform is 73% and 28%, respectively, and the total trading volume of the two platforms exceeds US$140 million.
Even if interest rates are kept unchanged, it will not automatically boost cryptocurrencies. The Fed maintained its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% in June, but the ensuing tightening tone resulted in approximately $122 million being wiped out of leveraged positions in four hours. Traders will also face uncertainty on Wednesday-the Fed's preferred inflation indicator will not be released until a day after the decision.
Coinglass data showed that 118,449 traders were liquidated in just 24 hours last week, totaling $437.94 million, a reminder of how weak the cushion under leveraged positions has become.
IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore said he remained neutral on Bitcoin until the price of Bitcoin clearly closed above the 200-day simple moving average, currently at US$72,001.
Bitcoin price volatility since its peak in October 2025
Bitcoin set a record of nearly $126,000 in October 2025 and has since given up nearly half of its gains. On July 1, Bitcoin fell below $58,000, a 21-month low, but rose back to above $66,500 three weeks later.
The currency opened above US$93,000 in 2026, and despite a partial rebound from a low in July, it still fell more than 30% during the year.
