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BTC Cryptocurrency analyst Sykodelic's latest market outlook points out that Bitcoin (BTC) may climb to the range of US$380,000 to US$450,000 in March 2028. The forecast sparked heated discussions on social media platform X, with the focus of controversy over whether the current bear market is a mid-cycle correction or whether the bull market has ended. This view is remarkable because it firmly believes that Bitcoin has not yet completed a more macro bull cycle, although many traders believe the market has peaked in October 2025.
Analysts: Bitcoin is still in the middle of a larger cycle
In a preview of the briefing released on Platform X on July 29, Sykodelic compared the current bear market to a mid-cycle correction rather than the end of the cycle, and cited historical trends from 2011-2013 and 2019-2021 as evidence. Based on this, the analyst predicts that the original cryptocurrency will reach the range of $380,000 to $450,000 starting in March 2028. Its price target relies on two tools: five times the 200-week simple moving average and a 95% quantile band that is already close to $330,000.
"The top of each cycle touches five times the 200-week moving average, which currently stands at $320,000," he wrote."As prices move higher, this figure will move up." The market observer pointed out that it only takes a 5.5-fold increase from the current price of Bitcoin to US$380,000, which is much smaller than the 23-fold increase in the asset from US$3000 to US$69,000 in 2020, which means that such a leap is not only possible, but also extremely probable.
As of press time, Bitcoin's trading price has exceeded $64,000 after experiencing a moderate recovery in the past day. The previous weakness was related to multiple factors, including investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision, the weak performance of the overall financial market, and continued outflows of cash bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Skeptics stand firm
The prediction was immediately criticized. One of the skeptics, X user Bitcoin Daily, who calls himself a data scientist, said that they used Sykodelic's own "890-day interval rule" to back-calculate from the October 2025 high and the result was spring 2023-according to this framework, October 2025 should be the top rather than the midpoint. They also pointed out that Sykodelic's chart completely skips the 2015-2017 cycle. In addition, the two rallies it cited are different in nature: June 2011 was an 89% plunge after the peak of the full cycle, while June 2019 was only a 55% retreat after the bear market rebound high.
Bitcoin Daily also emphasized that the tops of the past three cycles all occurred 525, 546 and 534 days after the halving. And March 2028 is 38 days earlier than the next halving, which means that Sykodelic's forecast of the top of $380,000 will occur at an unprecedented time point. "The top of Bitcoin never appears before it is halved," the data scientist said. In addition, an 890-day interval is calculated from the four local highs since June 2024, and the target time span is from May 2027 to October 2028-a window period of 17 months. Based on this, Bitcoin Daily believes that Sykodelic's March 2028 date was artificially chosen rather than calculated.
Sykodelic dismissed those objections, questioning the idea that spring 2023 could be considered a mid-cycle high just months after the November 2022 bear market low. He also said that the 2013-2019 period was not included because there was never a mid-cycle correction at this stage.
