Cardano (ADA) prices may be brewing long-awaited upside for bulls

Cardano prices remain around US$0.217 in an attempt to build a more convincing short-term bullish structure

Cardano (ADA) prices are currently trading around US$0.217, maintaining most of the results of their recent rally. According to More Crypto Online analysis, the latest 4-hour chart form may be crucial. Analysts believe ADA prices may have completed a five-wave rise from their August 31 lows, which could put Cardano in a bullish 1-2 wave structure. If this interpretation holds true, the current correction may be a preparation for a stronger three-wave rally. But the chart also draws a clear "life-and-death line": the US$0.197 - 0.214 range must be held to keep the direct bullish scenario intact.

More Crypto Online predicts a bullish 1-2 wave structure

The chart shows that the ADA rebounded strongly after bottoming out around US$0.188 - 0.190 on August 31. More Crypto Online counted the subsequent gains as five smaller Elliott waves, with the ADA finally approaching the resistance area of $0.228-$0.241. Before the regional breakthrough, the rally was rejected and prices fell back to around $0.217.

Analysts do not necessarily view this rejection as a bearish signal. Instead, these five-wave gains could represent the first wave in a larger bullish series, while the current decline constitutes the second wave. According to Elliot Wave Theory, this means that the next potential action will be wave 3.

Immediate Fibonacci support reinforced this scenario. The chart shows that 38.2% of the retracement is at approximately $0.2146, 50% is at $0.2096, 61.8% is at $0.2046, and 78.6% is at $0.1977. This makes $0.197 - 0.214 a key area to focus on observation.

As long as buyers defend in this range, the direct bullish scenario for More Crypto Online will still exist.

What would happen if the ADA held on to $0.197?

If the ADA completes its pullback within the current support area and starts to move higher, the first major test point will still be US$0.228 - 0.241. The region has previously rejected recent gains, so a mere rebound from support is not enough to confirm a larger breakthrough. ADA needs to recover $0.228 and then resolutely break through about $0.241.

The bullish Elliot Wave path in the chart points to the larger third wave rise, potentially pushing Cardano into the US$0.27 - 0.28 region. The long-term forecast on the chart extends to approximately US$0.31 - 0.32, although these levels depend on whether the bullish sequence continues to develop. Therefore, a more direct roadmap is as follows:

US$0.197 - 0.214 support → US$0.228 - 0.241 resistance → potential US$0.27 - 0.28 third-wave target.

ADA still faces bearish risks

This setting is not without risks. More Crypto Online said that if it falls below about $0.197, there will be an increasing possibility of a broader correction. The chart identifies a large support area between $0.157 and $0.188. Within this region, Fibonacci levels appear at $0.1887,$0.1753 and $0.1579. Analysts pay special attention to $0.189. Losing that level would officially negate the smaller bullish 1-2 wave setting he is currently tracking.

This does not necessarily destroy Cardano's entire long-term structure, but it means that the expected direct third-wave rally may not go as planned. Currently, ADA comfortably is above $0.197, meaning that bulls still control the immediate situation. However, a greater confirmation signal only appears when Cardano breaks the $0.228 - 0.241 ceiling.

As Cardano faces two major catalyst

technical situations in October, Cardano is preparing to welcome two ecosystem developments in October. RealFi announced that it will be launched on Cardano's main network on October 1st. The project reported that more than 3,600 users participated during its public beta network pioneer season. RealFi is designed around real-world finance, including USDr, a dollar-denominated asset. The project describes its test network as showcasing USDr and lending backed by real economic activity.

Claims that the RealFi announcement itself caused a 7% ADA backlash should be treated with caution. The ADA may rise around the announcement, but chronology alone does not establish that RealFi is responsible for the overall trend. In addition, Cardano will participate in the TOKEN2049 Origins hackathon in Singapore in October, challenging developers to use x402 to develop applications for the emerging proxy economy. The 36-hour development event aims to encourage developers to build new Cardano apps, providing the ecosystem with another opportunity to attract developers and expand real-world use cases.

Neither development guarantees higher ADA prices. In the long run, what matters is whether releases and developer initiatives translate into applications, users, and ongoing on-chain activity. However, from a technical perspective, the situation is much simpler. ADA needs to hold on to $0.197 - 0.214 and then break through $0.228 - 0.241. If this is done, More Crypto Online's third wave scenario towards around $0.27 - 0.28 will become quite noteworthy.