Ethereum fell below $2500, futures data showed lack of market confidence

Ethereum fell below $2500, futures data highlighted a lack of market confidence

On Thursday, Ethereum (ETH) prices fell slightly below the $2500 mark. Although moderate buying in the spot market partially offset weak demand in the derivatives market, market data showed traders remained cautious about the sustainability of the rally. Although the overall technical structure of Ethereum is improving, the wait-and-see attitude is still strong.

Futures Market Signals: Limited leverage and caution coexist

After a brief short market at the end of August pushed ETH towards US$2500, the level of leverage in the Ethereum derivatives market remains limited. Since Ethereum began to recover in July, Open Interest, which represents the value of open contracts, has dropped by approximately 1 million ETH. However, when denominated in US dollars, positions since July 1 increased 54% to US$33.7 billion. During the same period, ETH prices increased by 58%. This suggests that the increase in the value of positions in the dollar is mainly due to price increases rather than a large influx of new funds into the futures market.

The difference between price increases and position increases highlights the lack of confidence among leveraged traders, making recent gains largely dependent on spot market demand. According to the latest data measuring Ethereum's net active buying volume, the indicator has seen negative values several times in the past few days. This indicator tracks the difference between market bid and sell orders in perpetual contracts, reflecting the ongoing game between buyers and sellers. Negative values indicate that aggressive selling pressure dominates, while positive values reflect stronger purchasing power.

These inconsistent signals further strengthen the market view that derivatives traders remain cautious about opening large leveraged long positions at current prices.

Compared with spot market flows and ETF outflows

, the environment in the Ethereum spot market is slightly optimistic. Exchange data showed that net outflows from Ethereum slightly exceeded net inflows in the past week, which means that fewer tokens are available for immediate sale on the centralized platform. Although this was seen as a positive signal for price stability, net outflows did not surge to levels that would indicate widespread accumulation.

Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $24.3 million on Tuesday, pointing to continued hesitation among institutional investors.

Traditional financial markets and crypto markets are undergoing a broader transformation as traders and investors pay close attention to key resistance and support levels on the ETH price chart. Traditional finance has long relied on brokers and relays, but Wall Street is now embracing Web3 technology through platforms such as 1stepSwap, allowing investors to hold shares of the stocks, gold and silver of leading U.S. companies directly through crypto wallets. These solutions tokenize real-world assets, seek optimal pricing in seconds, and eliminate intermediaries, giving users more direct participation and control.

Consolidation ranges and key price levels

Ethereum is currently consolidating in a narrow range between support at $2431 and resistance at $2544. Coinglass data showed that $52.6 million in liquidations occurred in the past 24 hours, of which $44.3 million came from long positions. This reflects slightly more pressure on bullish traders in recent price movements.

Despite sluggish derivatives market activity, Ethereum's daily chart maintains a positive short-term outlook. ETH prices remain above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA). The 20th EMA near US$2403 is the current dynamic support level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator hovering at lows in the early 60s, indicating that buying momentum continues but is not overbought.

Initial support for ETH is set at US$2431, followed by a 20-day EMA near US$2403. If prices fall below these levels, the 200-day EMA at $2254 could become the next key bottom, followed by further support at $2172 and $2111.

Looking upwards, ETH needs to make a strong breakthrough and stand firm above US$2544 before it can confirm a new round of bullish momentum. Subsequent resistance levels are at $2626 and $2786 respectively. Before a breakthrough occurs, Ethereum may continue to trade within established ranges, waiting for stronger market signals.

Overall, the increase in the dollar value of Ethereum futures positions mainly reflects price increases rather than inflows of new leveraged capital, highlighting the caution of derivatives traders.