Coinbase CEO says Bitcoin has hit bottom before next halving

Why does Armstrong think Bitcoin has hit bottom?

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said he believes Bitcoin has hit a low point in the current market cycle and expects prices to show an upward trend in the next year or two as the next halving event approaches. "I personally think we have seen a bottom in Bitcoin prices in the current cycle," he told Bloomberg Television on Thursday. "As we approach the next halving event, it will start to show an upward trend in the next year or two."

On Thursday, Bitcoin traded at about $78,000, down about 1.7% in 24 hours, down about 38% from a record high of about $126,000. Armstrong's judgment follows Bitcoin's strong rebound after summer lows. As of September 9, Bitcoin rose 23% in the 21 trading days, while the S & P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were basically flat over the same period. The rebound has improved the market's short-term structure, but Bitcoin has yet to break through the main upper resistance zone. This means that Armstrong's long-term view depends on whether buyers can absorb supply offers above current prices.

Can Bitcoin break through the US$83,000 to US$86,000 range?

On-chain data shows that the $83,000 to $86,000 range is a key area to test this recovery. The region brings together multiple potential sources of selling pressure, including investors 'cost bases and market levels at which holders may be more willing to close their positions after the recent rebound. At the same time, selling activity has eased significantly compared to August. The seven-day Sell-Side Risk Ratio averages at approximately 7 basis points per day, just under half of the 16 basis points recorded during the peak in August. Lower selling pressure suggests that the proportion of holders achieving profits or losses is low relative to the size of the market, which will make it easier for Bitcoin to challenge the resistance band if demand continues to pour in.

However, technical obstacles remain huge. Bitcoin needs to rise about 6% from its current level of $78,000 to reach the bottom of the $83,000 resistance zone and about 10% to test the $86,000 level. If this range can be effectively exceeded, it will strongly prove that the summer decline has established a solid bottom of the cycle; if it fails to break through, Bitcoin may fluctuate within a wider range even if the summer lows are retained.

Investor Revelation

Armstrong's view of "hitting the bottom" belongs to long-term logic rather than confirmation that Bitcoin has entered a new bull market. The immediate test now is whether declining seller pressure will be enough to help Bitcoin break through the $83,000 to $86,000 resistance zone.

Why is the next Bitcoin halving part of the bullish case?

Armstrong linked his views to the next halving of Bitcoin. Halving is a cyclical event that cuts rewards for miners, slowing the rate at which new bitcoins enter circulation. Previous halving has become a high-profile node in the Bitcoin market cycle because they reduce new supply and market demand determines how the market absorbs the remaining issuance.

The next halving is far away, making Armstrong's one-to-two forecast much longer than the time frame many short-term market participants are focusing on. So, his argument is not just based on Bitcoin's recovery from its recent decline, but also assumes that the market can rebuild demand before the next supply reduction and overcome the huge gap that BTC still has from its all-time high. At a price of $78,000, Bitcoin would need to rise more than 60% to return to a high of around $126,000. The gap suggests that despite a strong rebound from summer lows, the market is still a long way from fully reversing the decline.

What is Coinbase betting on outside of Bitcoin?

Armstrong also pointed to non-Bitcoin areas that Coinbase sees as a path to growth opportunities in 2027. He said that stablecoin payment services on the Ethereum Layer 2 network Base incubated by Coinbase increased by 700% year-on-year. He also cited predictions that the size of the stablecoin market could reach US$3 trillion by 2030. Coinbase is focusing on four specific areas: payments, tokenization, predictive markets and Agency Finance. These businesses are expected to expand the company's participation in crypto activities beyond transaction revenue that is directly related solely to the price of Bitcoin and other tokens.

stablecoins are particularly relevant because their use in payments and settlements can generate blockchain activity without requiring users to bear targeted exposure to volatile crypto assets. For investors, Armstrong's comments combine two different assumptions about the next stage of the market: Bitcoin may benefit from another cycle driven in part by its planned supply schedule, while Coinbase is betting that stablecoins and other blockchain-based financial products can grow independently of Bitcoin prices.

The recent market test is relatively simple. Bitcoin has rebounded strongly from summer lows, but breaking through the $83,000 to $86,000 range would provide a stronger signal that buyers are ready to push the rally towards greater gains.