Bitcoin price tests $81,700, gains amid long-term supply constraints

Bitcoin prices face dense resistance barriers of US$77,100 to US$81,700

Core points:

• Long-term holders released up to 539,000 BTC in 30 days, causing Bitcoin prices to be blocked in supply-intensive areas of US$7,100 to US$80,200.
• If the closing price breaks through the 365-day moving average of $81,700, the Metcalfe valuation band of $83,600 needs to be tested, and then the $88,700 trader reaches the upper track before becoming relevant.
• The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF experienced outflows for the fourth consecutive trading day, losing US$13.29 million on Friday and a cumulative loss of US$462.73 million this week, despite trading volume reaching US$2.6 billion. In comparison, the Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $216.41 million on Friday, but the difference in capital flows does not justify a direct transfer of funds from Bitcoin products to Ethereum products.

Bitcoin prices face dense barriers of US$77,100 to US$81,700

Bitcoin prices have recently stalled after rising rapidly from below US$65,000 in mid-August to exceeding US$82,000 in a few weeks. On Friday, BTC traded at around $77,100, below a range of technical and on-chain resistance levels. CryptoQuant's analysis believes the overall trend remains constructive, but also points to several key hurdles buyers must overcome.

Bitcoin prices need to stay above their 365-day moving average (currently $81,700). The threshold had previously rejected the upward trend in early September and was historic in CryptoQuant's analytical framework. The company believes that standing above this moving average is a confirmed signal during the bull market period, rather than a short-term resistance breakthrough.

Long-term holders pose the most recent obstacle. CryptoQuant estimates that this group sold as many as 539,000 BTC during a 30-day window in 2026. The sales occurred between $77,100 and $80,200, creating an area where former holders could sell again in the rebound. Since Bitcoin prices are currently at the low levels of this range, demand must first absorb selling pressure before higher resistance levels will become the main consideration.

The supply area is below the 365-day moving average, making the upward path a series of steps rather than a single breakthrough. Bitcoin prices have failed at this position once before, when momentum from exceeding $82,000 was lost. In addition, CryptoQuant tracks a 200-day moving average near $70,000, viewing it as the first line of technical support if selling pressure increases.

The US$77,100 to US$80,200 area is more than just a chart line; it brings together the chips released by investors who have gone through early market periods and unhooked them during this period. If buyers are able to take over the chips offered, repeated testing can clear the supply; but if the rebound fails, the same holders will have the opportunity to reduce their exposure again.

If the $81,700 moving average falls, buyers will face two higher levels of resistance. The triple Metcalfe valuation band is at $83,600, which is an estimate of network value based on active addresses. CryptoQuant calls it a valuation ceiling that buyers must cross near the current range. Another level of resistance is when traders at $88,700 achieve an upper trajectory, which tracks the cost base of active traders. As spot prices approach the region, profit margins usually expand. CryptoQuant pointed out that previous approaches have often been accompanied by increased selling pressure. Therefore, a breakthrough of $81,700 alone will not solve the problem of a Bitcoin price breakthrough.

ETF flows shift focus to the $83,600 ceiling

ETF flows provide another short-term signal. The U.S. Bitcoin ETF made a net redemption of US$13.29 million on Friday, extending a four-day outflow. The sector lost $462.73 million this week, with trading volume of $2.6 billion, and its net assets closed at $97.58 billion.

During the redemption period, the Bitcoin price remained around US$77,000. This information does not prove that fund redemptions caused price corrections, but it suggests that recent institutional transactions did not provide sustained demand when recently testing top supply. This is particularly in contrast to the Ethereum Fund.

The Ethereum ETF had net inflows of $216.41 million on Friday, ending the fourth consecutive week of net inflows. This differentiation does not prove that funds are directly transferred to Ethereum products. Still, different funding flows suggest ETF demand has become selective, which is consistent with supply pressures above and the failure of the $81,700 test.

The moving average provides a clear reference point for the next trend. If it stands strong above $81,700,$83,600 will become the clear focus. If rejected, the supply area of US$77,100 to US$80,200 will remain active and Bitcoin prices will face the same concentrated seller pressure that has limited its latest rebound.

The downside level also has weight. CryptoQuant places the next visible support at its 200-day moving average near $70,000. The second on-chain accumulation cluster is between US$62,000 and US$65,000, with approximately 476,000 BTC accumulated here this year. The $77,100 to 80,200 area,$81,700 and $83,600 now depict the positions buyers need to regain before the $88,700 comes into view.