The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately US$121 million, but a breakthrough still needs to overcome multiple obstacles.
In the latest trading day, the U.S. spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately US$121 million, which is the second consecutive trading day that it has achieved positive inflows. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA products accounted for approximately US$80.5 million.
Despite this, Ethereum still has difficulty turning this institutional demand into a convincing price breakthrough. This leaves a key question: If ETF funds are flowing back, what conditions will Ethereum need to meet to push prices towards the $3,000 mark?
Ethereum faces a $2,500 - 2,600 bottleneck
Ethereum has struggled multiple times in the $2,500 mid-range area. At the beginning of this month, prices were rejected again around $2,544, while $2,400 has shown important supporting effects.
This technical pattern is interesting because demand below the surface seems to be stronger than price movements suggest. From late August to early September, the spot Ethereum ETF attracted more than US$1 billion in net inflows, showing positive capital flows in 10 of the 12 trading days.
Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin in ETF capital flow
另一个不寻常的发展迹象是:当比特币ETF近期遭受约4.63亿美元的周净流出时,据报道以太坊相关产品在同一时期吸引了约1.97亿美元的资金流入。这表明,尽管整个加密货币市场仍面临压力,但至少部分机构资本更倾向于配置ETH。
比特币正在与其自身的阻力位抗争,而以太坊则试图将2,500美元确立为新一轮上涨的基础。然而,仅靠ETF需求还不足以促成突破。
债券市场仍是宏观逆风
以太坊面临着与比特币及科技股当前相同的宏观逆风。美国10年期国债收益率已攀升至5%以上,布伦特原油价格约为108美元。高油价重新引发了通胀担忧,并强化了对美联储政策收紧的预期。
这一点至关重要,因为高国债收益率使投机性资产的吸引力下降。投资者可以在不承担以太坊波动风险的情况下,通过政府债务获得约5%的收益。因此,上升的美债收益率对风险资产造成的压力,仍然是以太坊突破的最大障碍之一。
若ETH突破2,600美元会发生什么?
如果以太坊能够突破2,600美元并站稳该位置,看涨逻辑将变得更具说服力。近期的分析指出,2,800美元附近存在更大的供应阻力区,因此如果当前阻力被打破,2,800美元将成为下一个主要观察区域。
相反的情景同样重要。如果ETH跌破2,400美元,当前的复苏走势将显得缺乏说服力,尤其是在ETF资金流入同时减弱的情况下。
以太坊能否触及3,000美元?
可以,但3,000美元并非以太坊首先需要赢得的战斗。眼前的挑战是将2,500–2,600美元从阻力位转化为支撑位。如果以太坊能在ETF资金持续流入的同时做到这一点,2,800美元将成为下一个合理的测试目标——而清除该区域可能使3,000美元的目标重新回到视野中。
目前,以太坊拥有买家。但它仍然缺乏的是决定性的突破。

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