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BTC BitMEX联合创始人Arthur Hayes：CLARITY法案并非比特币下一次大涨的关键
BitMEX联合创始人Arthur Hayes近日驳斥了《CLARITY法案》对比特币下一次重大行情的重要性，他认为流动性以及更广泛的宏观经济条件将比新的美国加密立法产生更为深远的影响。
宏观叙事胜过立法细节
在近期做客YouTube频道“Altcoin Daily”时，Hayes指出，比特币的上涨并不依赖于拟议中的立法，而是应关注日益加剧的美国政府债务担忧、国债市场波动以及潜在的货币宽松政策。
“从2009年至今，比特币从未需要过《CLARITY法案》，未来也不需要它。”Hayes表示。尽管加密货币投资者和行业参与者仍在就《CLARITY法案》展开激烈辩论，但Hayes对该法案持高度怀疑态度，认为其对于比特币价格的意义被严重高估了。
“这才是比特币真正需要的。不需要《CLARITY法案》，它也能上涨。”他补充道。
流动性与稀缺性资产的价值重估
Hayes认为，比特币下一次显著的价格走势可能由全球金融市场流动性的增加所驱动。他将加密货币的长期吸引力与美国政府债务的可持续性担忧联系起来。
According to the executive's analysis, if policymakers inject more money into the financial system in response to pressure from the treasury bond market, investors may increasingly seek scarce assets. "This means more liquidity. More fiat currencies chase limited goods,"Hayes explained.
In his view, Bitcoin is one of these scarce assets that can benefit from this environment. He pointed out that as confidence in traditional government debt wanes, Bitcoin's role as a store of potential value becomes increasingly important.
Expectations for a shift in Fed policy
In addition, Hayes hinted that measures aimed at stabilizing the government bond market could ultimately create favorable conditions for Bitcoin. He mentioned the possibility of additional support from the Federal Reserve and the ensuing larger monetary expansion.
The co-founder remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. He said Bitcoin prices could accelerate sharply if policymakers turned to mechanisms that could significantly expand liquidity.
"You see, the 10-year bond yield has reached 4.75%, and it looks like it will rise to 5%. If in a few weeks it clearly scares them and they suddenly announce,'Oh, we're going to double down on a plan like Operation Twist.'"
Investment Philosophy and Market Warning
It is worth noting that Hayes pointed out US$60,000, US$100,000 and Bitcoin's previous historical highs as important price levels, but emphasized that he did not heavily rely on technical analysis.
相反，Hayes表示他的投资策略核心在于更广泛的宏观经济叙事和流动性状况。“市场存在的目的是拿走你的钱，而不是让你赚钱。”他警告道。
尽管如此，虽然立法可能会影响加密企业的运营环境，但比特币下一次主要价格周期的走势可能更多地取决于货币政策、流动性以及对稀缺资产的投资需求。
截至发稿时，BTC交易价格为75,768美元，过去24小时内下跌了1.46%。
