XRP跌破1.30美元，投资者质疑其810亿美元估值

XRP跌破关键支撑位，迪拜投资者因市值过高拒绝入场

周二，XRP价格下跌7.3%，失守1.30美元的关键支撑位。与此同时，驻扎在迪拜的加密货币投资者Royal Kane明确表示，鉴于其高达810亿美元的市值，他排除了买入该代币的可能性。

市场表现与投资者观点

XRP从近期接近1.68美元的高点回落了23%。Royal Kane指出，XRP庞大的市值是他拒绝投资的主要原因。这位迪拜-based的加密货币投资者在社交媒体平台X上发文称，在当前估值下，他不会投资Ripple，因为其市值已经过大。

据相关市场数据显示，XRP价格徘徊在1.30美元附近，市值约为816.8亿美元，24小时交易量达41.2亿美元。自2026年初以来，该代币已累计下跌29.18%。

Kane认为，估值较低的项目可能拥有更大的上涨空间，能够更充分地受益于强劲的投资叙事。他以Solana早期的“以太坊杀手”标签、Pepe社区的增长案例以及Zcash的应用前景为例，说明了吸引交易者的叙事力量。他建议投资者寻找在未来几年具有 compelling narrative（引人入胜的故事）的币种，而非为XRP设定具体的价格目标。

抛售压力逆转反弹势头

近期的抛售压力抹去了XRP上一波反弹的大部分成果，使其价格从近期约1.68美元的高点回落至1.30美元左右，跌幅约为23%。此前在8月份，XRP经历了一段强势期，从约1美元攀升至月度高点近1.70美元。

根据9月的托管数据，尽管Ripple于9月1日从托管账户释放了10亿枚代币，XRP在8月份仍上涨了28.5%。当时这10亿枚代币的价值约为13.8亿美元。历史上，Ripple会将每月分配的大部分代币退回托管账户，从而限制了进入流通领域的数量。

机构需求也支撑了8月份的涨势。报告显示，美国现货XRP交易所交易基金（ETF）在当月吸引了1.5355亿美元的资金流入，其中最后两周就吸收了1.5028亿美元。此外，受大额转账推动而非交易笔数增加的影响，XRP账本支付量在一周内激增了521%。

然而，随着交易者对更严格的美国货币政策以及联邦加密货币立法再次延期的反应，价格走势发生反转。据引用数据，在参议院投票后，XRP周二下跌7.3%，交易价格约为1.31美元。

关于Ripple商业模式的争议

Kane的批评集中在XRP 810亿美元的估值上。他认为这一规模限制了潜在回报，因为代币需要大量的新增资本才能实现小盘资产所能提供的百分比涨幅。

He also claimed that Ripple "does not have any products or revenue." Because Ripple is a private company, it does not need to publish quarterly financial statements like U.S. listed companies, making it difficult for investors to obtain detailed information related to its revenue. However, the company publicly operates a number of products and services, including Ripple Payments, RLUSD stablecoins and Ripple Prime, the institutional brokerage business established after the acquisition of Hidden Road. In addition, Ripple also announced hosting and treasury services for corporate customers.

Kane's investment logic distinguishes the market value of XRP from its assessment of Ripple's commercial operations. XRP is a native asset of XRP Ledger, while Ripple is a private technology company that holds a large number of tokens and develops services that can use the network. This distinction is crucial because purchasing XRP does not provide equity ownership of Ripple, revenue claims, or voting rights over the business. XRP holders gain exposure to the token market price, which is influenced by network activity, liquidity, speculation, regulation and Ripple-related developments.

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates and exacerbates pressure on risky assets

Macroeconomic conditions have added another level of uncertainty to XRP and other cryptocurrencies. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target interest rate range to 3.75% to 4%. This is the first time that the United States has raised interest rates since 2023, and the decision was unanimously adopted.

Forecasts released by the central bank show that 12 of the 18 officials expect further interest rates during the year. Higher interest rates could increase returns on U.S. Treasuries and money market products, providing U.S. investors with more revenue-generating alternatives. Digital assets do not provide fixed returns, and tightening financial conditions may reduce the need for speculative investment.

Ahead of this decision, U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations for interest rate hikes. 8 The annualized inflation rate reached 3.4%, and consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month. Energy costs rose 2.1% in August, and gasoline prices rose 3.9%. Core consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding the 0.2% estimate cited in the report. Following the release of inflation data, market traders were forecast to raise the probability of a quarter-basis point rate hike to 81%. Although these contracts represent bets rather than official guidance, their pricing suggests traders were largely prepared for higher borrowing costs ahead of the meeting.

The setback of the CLARITY Act leaves policy suspense

On September 15, regulatory pressure escalated further as the U.S. Senate refused to hold a closing debate on the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act. The motion failed with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, 11 votes short of the 60 votes needed to start a formal debate.

此次投票对XRP具有重要意义，因为该法案旨在将监管职责在证券交易委员会（SEC）和商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）之间划分。其对网络代币的处理方式可能会影响XRP及其他加密资产在美国市场的分类。

投票前几小时，参议院共和党人传阅了一份修订后的635页草案，增加了涵盖辅助资产的语言。提案将辅助资产描述为价值依赖于发起人或关联方管理或创业工作的网络代币。根据草案措辞，无论Ripple控制的数量多少，XRP在二级市场交易中都可能被视为数字商品。但由于支持率不足，该提案未能进入辩论阶段，现有的法律和监管框架得以保留。

尽管投票失败，但谈判并未结束。七名参议院民主党人已重新启动《CLARITY法案》谈判，并表示被否决的终结辩论动议并非立法努力的终点。参议院官方点名表决显示，49名议员支持推进该措施，50名反对。这意味着任何重新尝试都需要至少11张额外选票才能达到终结辩论的门槛。