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BTC JPMorgan analysts: If ETF hedging demand eases, Bitcoin may gain more support than gold
JPMorgan's analytical team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out in a report this week that if hedging demand in the exchange-traded funds (ETF) market weakens, Bitcoin (BTC) may gain more price support than gold. Currently, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust Fund (IBIT) has short positions at a high level during the year.
Data shows that IBIT has a higher open interest ratio of put options to call options than the SPDR Gold Share ETF (GLD). Analysts believe this shows that the market is hedging more strongly against Bitcoin, while GLD's short positions are below its historical average.
Comparison of market positioning between Bitcoin and gold
The report pointed out that despite recent capital inflows and increased futures positions, Bitcoin still faces a more cautious market sentiment background than gold.
In addition, according to data released by FINRA and compiled by MarketBeat, as of the settlement date of August 31, IBIT's short selling base size was 45.9 million shares, the highest reading in 2026, an increase of 23.8% from 37.1 million shares two weeks ago. This position is equivalent to 3.53% of the outstanding shares. To close it, it will consume 0.6 days of the fund's average daily trading volume (approximately 53 million shares). In contrast, the base size of short sales at the end of March was close to 13 million shares, a low for the year.
报告提到，在美联储7月下旬会议后，随着“货币贬值交易”回归，比特币和黄金基金均迎来了资金流入。这也是推动比特币向80,000美元靠拢、金价逼近每盎司4,600美元反弹的原因之一，投资者因美国财政担忧而转向稀缺资产。
然而，分析师写道，过去一周动能有所减弱，原因是经通胀调整的债券收益率上升，且参议院在一项程序性投票中未能推进《CLARITY法案》，该投票未达到所需的60票。
报告显示，黄金ETF已收复今年早些时候的所有流出资金，而比特币基金仅收回了约一半。
长期潜力与市场波动
帕尼吉洛格鲁的团队此前曾进行过比特币与黄金的对比分析。今年2月，在加密资产承压之际，分析师将经过波动率调整后的比特币对黄金估值定为266,000美元。他们称这是“今年不切实际的目标”，但显示“一旦负面情绪逆转，长期来看具有上行潜力”。
据CoinGecko数据，周四比特币交易价格约为76,500美元，过去24小时内变化不大。
ETF资金流向剧烈波动
此外，美国现货比特币ETF本月资金流向大幅波动。9月1日录得2.36亿美元的资金流出，随后在9月3日转为流入7.31亿美元，这是自1月以来最强的一天，其中仅IBIT就占据了约4.54亿美元。
据SoSoValue数据，9月初这些基金的净资产总额为1,033亿美元，约占比特币总市值的6%。
