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BTC Bitcoin rallied against the trend after Senate votes to block the Clear Act
This week, legislative efforts aimed at establishing comprehensive regulation of the cryptocurrency market stalled in the Senate. The Clarity Act received only 49 votes in support, 11 votes short of the 60-vote threshold required for passage.
The proposal aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the regulation of digital assets. As the bill thwarted, those jurisdictional issues remain unresolved.
Despite the unfavorable Senate vote, seven Democratic senators expressed their commitment to pushing the bill through, indicating that it has not completely ended.
Progress of the Clarification Act is blocked
At the Avalanche Summit in New York,"Shark Tank" guest Kevin O'Leary commented on the Senate outcome. He said he had expected the bill's failure.
"In my opinion, the chances of the Clarity Act succeeding are almost zero, and it is," O'Reilly commented. However, he does not believe this is the final outcome of the legislation.
O'Reilly highlighted the simultaneous progress of the House on other legislative aspects. This week, the Digital Asset Tax Uncertainty Act passed the House Ways and Means Committee.
The alternative legislation would establish a tax framework for cryptocurrency operations such as pledges, mining and small transactions. In addition, the bill also deals with reporting obligations for brokers.
According to O'Reilly, tax legislation creates impetus for comprehensive market regulation. "Implementing taxes requires a corresponding policy framework," he explained.
He expects Congress to revisit market structure issues after the midterm elections. O'Reilly hinted that this process could happen in the first or second quarter of 2026, regardless of the partisan composition of Congress.
Legislative prospects are bleak, Bitcoin continues to climb
Before the Senate vote, Matt Hougan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, held the opposite view. He has likened the Clarity Act to the "Pustutanifil" of the crypto market (a traditional symbol of weather), predicting that if the bill fails, the market will face long-term weakness.
After the voting results were released, Hogan revised his assessment. In communications to clients, he said the bill's failure may not be as decisive as media reports suggest.
Hou Gen analyzed the price trajectory of Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of about $57,950 on July 1, before soaring to above $80,000 on September 4.
During the same period, Polymarket's forecast for the probability of the Clarification Act passing this year plummeted from 39% to 14%. Hou Gen pointed out that this reverse relationship contradicts the expectation that "the bull market really depends on legislative success."
他观察到，主要金融机构正在扩大加密货币业务，而无需等待国会的行动。侯根列举了Robinhood的区块链启动、摩根士丹利的Solana交易所交易基金（ETF），以及DTCC的首例代币化股票结算作为例证。
侯根将这一势头归因于当前联邦监管机构的人员构成。他强调，SEC主席保罗·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）和CFTC主席迈克·塞利格（Mike Selig）的领导层均支持加密货币，且任期将持续至2029年。
SEC主席保罗·阿特金斯表示，已准备好通过机构规则制定来解决《清晰法案》中概述的问题。CFTC主席迈克·塞利格也向其组织传达了类似的意图。
尽管如此，侯根承认监管方法存在局限性。机构法规容易在未来政府更迭时被逆转，只有国会立法才能授予CFTC对现货加密货币市场的全面管辖权。
投票后，比特币下跌了约4%。侯根建议，不断升温的利率焦虑和油价波动可能是导致回调的原因。
他预计，在持续增长之前还将出现更多的波动。“牛市轨迹前方仍有几个障碍，”他表示。
