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BTC 核心要点
- 看涨情绪指数（Bull Score Index）降至60的关键阈值
- 关键支撑区域正在被密切观察
- 美联储加息25个基点后，比特币跌破76,000美元关口
- 这是自2023年7月以来的首次加息，结束了为期三年的宽松货币政策周期
- 传统股市反弹，纳斯达克上涨1.5%，标普500指数上涨0.9%
- CryptoQuant的看涨情绪指数从80跌至60，达到该平台维持看涨情绪的基准线
- 根据CryptoQuant分析，关键支撑位位于70,000美元以及62,000-65,000美元区间
市场背景与宏观环境
本周，随着美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）宣布加息25个基点，将基准利率上调至3.75%-4%区间，比特币价格跌破76,000美元大关。此次调整标志着美联储自2023年7月以来的首次加息，宣告了长达三年之久的宽松货币政策周期的结束。
在经历初期的下跌后，比特币成功挽回部分失地，截至发稿时小幅上涨0.5%。BTC/USD交易对曾在周二触及月度新低，随后展开反弹。TradingView数据显示，过去24小时内价格波动性有所下降，一小时时间框架内的价格变动仅呈边际变化。
According to CoinGlass data, the liquidity of both buy and sell orders around current spot prices has increased. This pattern usually occurs when the market is in a behavioral phase of range volatility.
Despite the implementation of monetary tightening policies, the traditional U.S. stock market has shown resilience. The S & P 500 index rose 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index surged 1.5%. Market analysis platform The Kobeissi Letter commented on the stock market recovery on X (formerly Twitter):"The asset holder economy is getting stronger." The analysis emphasized that Nasdaq's performance demonstrated that asset holders were significantly protected from restrictive monetary policies.
Other major central banks have also joined in tightening policies. The European Central Bank (ECB) implemented a 0.25% rate hike the previous week. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to announce its own decision to raise interest rates on Friday. This will create a situation in which the three major central banks tighten policies one after another in just a few days.
The bullish sentiment index hits a key threshold
The "Bull Score Index" launched by cryptocurrency data analysis platform CryptoQuant to monitor the price cycle of Bitcoin has fallen back from 80 points to 60 points. According to the platform's methodology, 60 points is the minimum threshold for maintaining a bullish market classification.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, provided the company's perspective in a weekly analysis submitted to Cointelegraph: "The trend remains bullish, but momentum and macro factors are unfavorable for it in the near term."
Moreno指出，美国比特币需求减弱以及山寨币资金流增加是近期的障碍。此外，《CLARITY法案》的推迟以及美联储的加息决定也被提及为支持预期盘整期的额外因素。
关键支撑区域待观察
CryptoQuant的分析确定了两个需要市场参与者重点关注的重要支撑区域。这些水平包括70,000美元，以及更广泛的62,000-65,000美元区间。
Moreno的完整分析总结道：“比特币正在降温，而非转向。60分的看涨情绪指数保持了看涨趋势，但疲软的美国需求、上升的山寨币流入量，以及充满宏观风险的一周——《CLARITY法案》的推迟和预期的美联储加息——都指向了盘整行情。”
在进入当前的盘整阶段之前，比特币8月份的涨幅曾达到25%。宏观经济因素已成为阻碍这一上行轨迹延续的近期障碍。截至周四，CryptoQuant的看涨情绪指数记录为60/100。
分析师观点：高位整理后的突破
加密货币分析师Killa (@KillaXBT) 预测，BTC将在向90,000美元迈进之前形成一个更高的低点，但他警告称，这一走势可能不会直接从当前价格水平启动。根据他的展望，BTC可能会在较长时间内保持区间震荡交易，而跌至70,000美元低区间的回撤可能才是真正的底部，随后才会开启上行延续。他将此描述为经典的流动性周期——即在真正的突破发起前，迫使交易者出局。
