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XRP XRP approaches "golden cross", Bitcoin market share drops to January low
As Bitcoin (BTC) market share falls to a January low below 59%, XRP is gradually approaching the much-watched bullish chart signal-the "golden cross".
Key Points
- XRP's 50-day average price is currently about 2% lower than its 200-day average price, the narrowest gap between the two since August 2024.
- As several altcoins rose nearly 30% in one day, Bitcoin's dominance slipped below 59%.
- Looking back at history, none of the 16 previous "golden crosses" in XRP lasted for a year before reversing.
XRP's "Golden Cross" is approaching
Market data shows that XRP's 50-day moving average is currently approximately 2% below its 200-day moving average, which is the smallest gap between the two since the last "Golden Cross" appeared in August 2024. Chart analysts typically view the movement of the short-term moving average across the long-term moving average as a signal that a medium-term uptrend is established, but since both moving averages are based on past closing prices, they are lagging.
Bitcoin trading prices hover around $78,000, basically the same as a week ago. This week, the Federal Reserve announced a rate hike and the Clarity Act suffered setbacks, causing Bitcoin's share of total crypto market value to fall below a one-month low of 59%. Meanwhile, tokens including Uniswap (UNI), NEAR Protocol (NEAR) and Arbitrum (ARB) surged nearly 30% in 24 hours.
Kuptsikevich解读市场轮动
FxPro首席市场分析师Alex Kuptsikevich表示，“主要币种表现滞后，而山寨币加速上涨。”他引用了美国监管机构可能拥抱加密货币以及国会通过《比特币储备法案》的希望作为理由。不过，他补充道，由于山寨币季节指数和更广泛的市场情绪均未升至高位，交易者对转向山寨币仍持谨慎态度。
重点关注XRP的价格水平
该代币的交易价格约为1.33至1.35美元，略低于9月8日触及的约1.39美元。在赋予近期价格更高权重的指数移动平均线上，XRP仍显示为“死亡交叉”态势：50日均线位于1.2860美元，而200日均线位于1.3539美元。若价格跌破1.33美元，两条均线将再次拉开距离；而在成交量低迷的情况下确认的交叉，若缺乏持续的买盘支撑，往往容易失效。
XRP自身的历史记录也提醒投资者保持谨慎。在其历史上出现的16次“黄金交叉”中，没有任何一次持续时间超过12个月，且每一次最终都以代表看跌信号的“死亡交叉”告终，即该形态的熊市镜像。
其中六次交叉甚至未能维持三个月。在坚持下来的十次中，五次涨幅介于85%至1,000%以上之间，其中包括2017年4月信号发出后高达1,009.6%的涨幅。其余五次则最大跌幅达32%，这表明该指标单独使用时并不可靠。
当前的局面紧随8月份的强劲反弹之后。当时，XRP在一周内飙升近40%，并首次数月来突破1.40美元关口。该代币在本月初曾跌至接近1.00美元，随后在8月下旬触及约1.70美元，之后又回落至目前的交易区间。
