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BTC Bitcoin trades in the range of US$77,000 to US$78,000, maintaining a volatile pattern for several weeks
As of September 18, Bitcoin prices fluctuated around US$77,000 to US$78,000, continuing to maintain their weeks-long volatile range. Earlier, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16; the Bank of Japan subsequently followed suit and raised interest rates to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995.
On September 16, the CLARITY Act (Crypto Market Structure Act) failed to pass a vote in the Senate to end debate. The result was 49 votes to 50, just one vote short of the 60 votes needed to advance it.
The central bank's interest rate hike did not trigger a sell-off, and the market has digested expectations ahead of schedule.
On Thursday, the Bitcoin price regained its footing above US$77,000, absorbing two consecutive interest rate hikes from major central banks in three days without breaking the existing price range. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates; the next day, the Bank of Japan followed suit, raising rates to 1.25%, the highest level in Japan since 1995.
Historically, interest rates have often put pressure on Bitcoin and other risky assets, as higher interest rates make it more expensive to hold non-yielding assets relative to bonds and cash. Traders had expected the two rate hikes to trigger a sell-off wave. However, bitcoin prices have remained solid, suggesting that markets have largely factored interest rate hikes into prices in the weeks leading up to the decision, rather than reacting immediately to the news itself.
Legislation blocked but not terminated, substantial progress has been made at the regulatory level
本周更大的不确定性来自《CLARITY法案》，这是一项在国会官方记录中追踪的加密市场结构法案。该法案周二在参议院以49票对50票未能通过终止辩论程序，距离所需的60票仅差一票。该法案旨在解决美国证券交易委员会（SEC）与商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）之间长期存在的管辖权争议，明确界定哪些数字资产属于商品，哪些属于证券。目前这一区分因案而异，导致交易所和代币发行方的合规成本高昂。
此次挫折并非最终结局。已有动议要求重新考虑该投票结果，且多名参议员公开重申了推动通过该法案版本的承诺。这种组合似乎是比特币价格对该消息反应微弱的原因：交易员将其视为立法时间表上的延迟，而非努力的终结。
与此同时，监管机构并未等待国会行动而持续前行。在《CLARITY法案》投票后的短短几天内，SEC推出了针对代币化股票交易的创新豁免，CFTC也扩大了为软件提供商提供的“不采取行动”救济措施。尽管立法路径依然停滞，但这些举措为市场提供了具体的监管进展信号。
投资者结构转变增强市场韧性
Bitcoin's resilience this week is particularly prominent in its own historical context. Previous interest rate hikes, including a period of aggressive tightening from 2022 to 2023, have been accompanied by Bitcoin's deepest decline, when investors generally preferred cash and short-term bonds over volatile and non-yielding assets. Bitcoin absorbed two consecutive interest rate hikes in three days without a comparable decline, indicating that its investor base has changed significantly, leaning towards long-term holders, including ETF investors and corporate treasury managers. These long-term holders are less responsive to single-week monetary policy headlines than the more leveraged trading groups that dominated the market in the early cycles.
