45% increase in Arbitrum may be factored into ARB's unearned revenue

The mismatch behind the rebound: Robinhood Chain's revenue versus real gains for ARB holders

Recent data shows that ARB has gained about 45% in the past seven days, while Robinhood Chain generated $43.2 million in revenue in the 30 days ended September 18. This data suggests that networks built on Arbitrum technology can generate considerable revenue outside of Arbitrum One. However, the $43.2 million total revenue masked the fact that daily revenue growth was slowing.

Normalization challenges after a surge in income

Judging from the daily income chart, the situation is not so optimistic. Revenue accelerated at the end of August and briefly approached $8 million in early September, but fell back below $1 million in the latest data period. As a result, the cumulative 30-day total reflects Robinhood Chain's production capacity during the surge, rather than its monthly fixed income level. When revenue-generating activity has slowed, the 30-day total may still remain high.

Another key test is coming soon. Robinhood reportedly provides Gas fee subsidies for qualifying transactions in its official wallet, and the support program is expected to end in late September. Activity after the subsidy expires will more clearly reflect how much actual demand remains when users bear more transaction costs themselves.

Robinhood Chain's revenue does not directly translate into ARB revenue

Robinhood Chain 是基于 Arbitrum Dedicated Blockchains（Arbitrum 专用区块链）框架构建的，该框架允许公司利用 Arbitrum 技术启动定制化的 Layer 2 网络。根据 Arbitrum 扩展计划，参与网络需将其净协议收入的 10% 贡献给 Arbitrum 生态系统。其中，8% 进入 DAO 国库，2% 用于支持维护技术的开发人员。

收入连接机制解析

• Robinhood Chain 产生净协议收入
• 10% 进入 Arbitrum 生态系统
• 8% 分配至 DAO 国库
• 2% 分配给开发人员
• 无自动的 ARB 分发、销毁或回购

报告的 4320 万美元不能简单地乘以 10% 来计算 Arbitrum 的收入。协议针对的是净协议收入，而分析提供商对费用、运营成本和收入的定义可能不同。此外，Robinhood Chain 使用 ETH 作为 Gas 代币。更多的交易可以增加网络收入，而无需用户购买 ARB。ARb 的联系主要体现在治理层面：ARB 持有者可以投票决定 DAO 国库的使用方式，但投票权并不等同于获得现金流。

为何交易者仍将收入与 ARB 挂钩？

Arbitrum 商业模式的新证据
Robinhood Chain 加强了 Arbitrum 能够通过授权其他公司使用其技术来建立独立网络并从中获利的论点。收入不必完全依赖于 Arbitrum One 上的交易。

The treasury gives the ARB indirect link
Revenue paid to the DAO can be used to fund development, incentives, or investments aimed at expanding the ecosystem. If these decisions attract more projects and revenue, control of the treasury may become more valuable. Still, a larger treasury does not guarantee an increase in ARB prices. Expenditures may not yield a return, and token holders cannot redeem the ARB on a pro rata basis in exchange for treasury assets.

Mechanisms by which traders may be betting on the future
Standard Chartered Bank put missing value connections at the heart of its recent Arbitrum report. The bank reportedly set a target of $10 for ARB in 2030, while also pointing to the lack of direct revenue accumulation by ARB as a risk factor in the forecast. The report may encourage traders to price possible future buybacks, distributions or other value-capture mechanisms. But this is not an inevitable result of existing agreements.

This timing also overlaps with the broader cryptocurrency rally. Recent analysis shows that participation in multiple sectors is improving. Robinhood Chain may have reinforced ARB's bullish case, but the token's rise is not isolated.

Rally hits support for ARB's previous decline

9 月 19 日，ARB 交易价格接近 0.21 美元，过去七天涨幅约 45%，并在 Coinbase ARB/USD 图表上短暂触及 0.23 美元。在周线图上，0.21-0.23 美元区域在 2025 年底曾作为 ARB 的支撑位。随后的跌破导致其在 2026 年跌至 0.10 美元以下。目前价格正从下方接近这一前支撑位，该区域可能转变为阻力位。

ARB 已收复位于 0.15 美元附近的 50 周移动平均线，但 100 周均线仍在 0.33 美元左右的高位。买方首先需要突破前支撑位（现阻力位），之后长期均线才具有参考意义。

$0.23 触发日内回调

ARB 在触及 0.23 美元后回撤至 0.21 美元附近。由于日线蜡烛图尚未收盘，这一走势显示了阻力位附近的卖压，但并未构成明确的拒绝信号。日线 RSI 达到约 71，意味着随着价格遭遇周线阻力，反弹进入了传统的超买区域。这一读数并不意味着立即下跌，而是表明涨幅来得过快，使得对首次回调的反应更具信息量。

下一步走势如何改变格局

• 日线收于 $0.23 上方：ARB 将清除近期高点及前周线支撑区域的上沿。
• 回调在 $0.20 附近企稳：23.6% 的回撤将保留大部分涨幅，并提供前区间上方支撑的首个证据。
• 价格跌破 $0.17：失去 38.2% 的回撤位将使突破面临压力，并暴露出 0.15-0.16 美元的区域。
• 价格回归 $0.15 下方：丢失收复的 50 周均线将移除复苏结构的重要组成部分。

ARB 正在为一种可能性定价，而非接收现金流

Robinhood Chain 证明了 Arbitrum 的技术可以支持产生收入的业务。尚未得到证实的是，这种成功是否会给 ARB 持有者带来比管理更大规模生态系统国库之外的更多权益。目前更有用的测试是：Robinhood Chain 的日常收入是否在初期激增后趋于稳定，以及 DAO 是否会建立生态系统收入与代币之间更清晰的联系。在此之前，围绕 0.23 美元的反应将显示出交易者为这种可能性愿意支付多少溢价，直到 ARB 的经济模型真正跟上步伐。