纳斯达克2027年代币计划考验凯文·奥莱里的加密投资理论

Why this matters

Nasdaq is developing tokenized stocks, assets that can be traded and settled through an infrastructure that runs around the clock. This move may verify the feasibility of blockchain technology, but it does not necessarily produce the single dominant network that Michael O'Leary expected.

Nasdaq provides practical tests for O'Reilly's predictions. In an interview with The Block on September 18, he revealed that he was establishing new crypto asset positions before the next market cycle. But the more important part of his argument is that he is waiting for changes to occur in the traditional financial world.

He described the first major stock exchange to adopt blockchain as a "watershed moment." Once that happens, banks, brokerages and other financial institutions will have reason to build their businesses around infrastructure that already meets exchange operating and regulatory requirements.

There is currently no consensus to determine a "winner" network

O'Reilly said that management in different industries is considering different blockchain solutions rather than aggregating them into a single network. Therefore, his argument contains two separate parts:

• The adoption of exchanges can verify blockchain infrastructure.
• One of these networks may become the standard of choice for organizations.

Nasdaq has previously announced a project that will be able to test the first part. Eight days before the release of O'Reilly's interview, on September 10, the exchange operator expanded its partnership with Payward, Kraken's parent company, to develop Nasdaq equity tokens (NETs).

What Nasdaq actually announced

Under the agreement announced by Nasdaq, Nasdaq Ventures plans to invest US$100 million in Payward. Both sides expect NETs to be launched in the second quarter of 2027, but this is still a target date rather than a guaranteed execution time.

This framework aims to connect Nasdaq equity tokens with Payward's xStocks ecosystem and support their distribution, trading and post-transaction processing. Payward will also use Nasdaq's market monitoring technology in its cryptocurrency, stocks, tokenized stocks, futures and options trading venues.

Nasdaq plans and unknowns

Category Known plans What is unclear Ownership Tokenized shares that retain shareholder rights Which issuers will participate? Trading Distribution through NETs framework What are the expected trading volume and liquidity? Post-transaction processing How much time and collateral can infrastructure designed for continuous asset movement save? Blockchain Connecting to Payward's tokenized stock ecosystem 是否会出现一个主导性的公共网络？

这并非完整的交易所迁移

Nasdaq 并未宣布将其主要订单簿、匹配引擎或上市证券市场迁移至公共区块链。NETs 关注的是股票的表征和移动，而非整个交易所的替代。

股票可以由代币代表，但价格发现、订单匹配、托管和监管报告仍依赖于熟悉的市场运营商。因此，Nasdaq 的项目属于机构层面的区块链采用，但尚未达到奥莱利理论中所想象的单一网络的清晰选择。

经济论证始于交易之后

如果体验保持不变，投资者可能并不关心其股份是否使用代币。潜在的竞争优势隐藏在屏幕背后，即在买卖双方达成价格后用于完成交易的流程中。

为何结算仍需抵押品

美国股票交易通过净额结算相结合，即在结算前抵消购买和销售。这大幅减少了必须交割的现金和证券数量，但在结算待定时，券商仍需针对剩余风险提供抵押品。

Payward 联合首席执行官 Arjun Sethi 引用了以下数据：

• 每日进入清算的美国股票交易额：超过 2 万亿美元
• 通过净额结算估计减少的比例：98%
• 针对剩余部分的抵押品持有量：100亿-200亿美元
• T+1 据报道释放的抵押品：30亿美元

Sethi believes that on-chain clearing can shorten the remaining waiting time and free up more capital. The numbers appeared in Nasdaq's announcement as Payward's explanation of the opportunity, but they were not the results of independent verification from the operating NETs market.

The real comparison will be operational. Tokenization systems need to settle assets more efficiently without losing advantages such as netting, market monitoring, investor protection and error handling. If it leads to higher liquidity or counterparty costs elsewhere, faster speeds alone are not enough.

Tokenized stocks are not synthetic trackers

Nasdaq said its framework was developed around an issuer-centered model that retains rights and protections associated with traditional stocks.

Type Characteristics Tokenized shares Represents ownership of securities
Retain dividend rights
Retain shareholder voting rights
Must support corporate actions Synthetic trackers track stock market prices
may not represent direct ownership
may not provide voting rights
Depending on the product issuer

This difference determines whether tokenized stocks can outperform speculative products. Supporting true ownership requires establishing systems for dividends, shareholder rolls, voting, disclosures, and other corporate behavior.

Investors already have quick access to U.S. stocks through traditional brokerages. NETs need to add practical benefits-such as longer transaction availability, easier money transfers between platforms, or more efficient settlements-without weakening the legal protections investors already have.

SEC opens the path, but does not approve NETs

On September 17, the regulatory environment changed when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) introduced temporary and conditional exemptions for certain tokenized securities trading platforms. The framework allows eligible licensed platforms to trade tokenized U.S. listed stocks while regulators consider permanent rules.

SEC conditions include:

• Permission to access rather than unrestricted trading
• Compliance with US sanctions
• Same rights as traditional securities
• No loss of dividends or voting rights
• Issuer has the right to block participation

The SEC's action does not approve Nasdaq equity tokens, Payward or the proposed 2027 launch plan. However, this suggests that regulators are starting to distinguish tokenized ownership from products that merely mimic stock prices.

Agencies are acting while Congress is stalled

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins linked the interim measure to the Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act. O'Reilly also said he does not expect the legislation to pass before the midterm elections, although he believes lawmakers will eventually return to the issue of crypto regulation.

其他机构也在利用现有权限开展工作。在立法受挫后，商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）已向白宫提交了单独的加密市场提案。

这些措施为受控实验创造了更多空间，但并未提供永久性立法的确确定性。随着监管机构收集证据并制定更持久的规则，Nasdaq 和 Payward 可能仍需调整其框架。

2027 年启动后的五个关键结果

此次公告为奥莱利的理论提供了一个知名机构、一个商业伙伴和一个目标日期。它是否会成为一个真正的转折点，将取决于部署后发生的情况。

如何判断 NETs 是否获得真实采用

1. 发行方参与度：有多少上市公司允许其股份的代币化版本存在？
2. 交易流动性：投资者能否在不出现巨大价差的情况下交易有意义的规模？
3. 股东权利：分红、投票和其他公司行为是否能可靠处理？
4. 结算节省：该系统是否能显著降低抵押品和处理成本？
5. 市场整合：代币能否在不同平台间移动，而不将流动性分割到孤立的市场中？

这些结果也将显示该项目是否为特定加密货币创造了需求。Nasdaq 和 Payward 可以使用基于区块链的基础设施，而无需生成对自由交易代币的大量需求。商业价值可能仍然保留在交易所、基础设施提供商、托管人和合规服务提供商手中。

Nasdaq 可能在未选择赢家的情况下验证区块链

如果 NETs 吸引了发行方和有意义的交易活动，该项目将支持奥莱利更广泛的信念，即股市的采用可以将区块链带入主流金融。但这并不一定证实寻找捕获大部分价值的单一网络的搜索。

Nasdaq 的计划指向一种更安静的结果。区块链可能作为机器的一部分进入股市，在熟悉的股票、股东权利和受监管的场所后面运行。在这种采用版本中，技术之所以成功，正是因为投资者不再需要思考其底层使用的是哪条链。

本文仅提供信息目的，不构成财务或投资建议。项目时间表、监管条件和市场基础设施计划可能会发生变化。