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BTC Trump's Gulf Reconstruction Plan
Focus on US$90,000 and higher
Bitcoin rose about 7%, breaking the US$87,000 mark, setting its highest level since January this year. The Trump administration has proposed $5 billion to rebuild Gulf energy facilities damaged during the Iranian war. As Bitcoin broke through resistance, approximately $919 million of short cryptocurrency positions were liquidated. Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin prices are still above its real market average, a level that is often associated with a stronger market. Analysts next focused on the $90,000 to $100,000 range, while Sanitation warned that the market was showing rising FOMO sentiment and signs of increased leverage.
Trump's Gulf Reconstruction Plan
On Monday, the price of Bitcoin climbed above $87,000, an increase of about 7% in 24 hours. The trend pushed prices to their highest point since January this year. The rebound was driven by multiple factors, including falling oil prices, lower U.S. Treasury yields and new demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Market risk appetite has also improved as the Trump administration unveiled new plans for the Middle East. The news boosted the prices of Bitcoin and other risky assets. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration has proposed establishing a Gulf Energy Investment Fund with an initial funding of $5 billion to repair infrastructure damaged during the seven-month war between the United States and Iran.
该基金将寻求沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、阿曼、伊拉克和约旦等国的配套注资。同时，资金还将用于建设替代路线，以减少对霍尔木兹海峡的依赖。计划的重点在于修复受损的能源站点，并建立替代性的石油和天然气运输通道。
油价影响通胀预期，进而可能带动国债收益率及比特币等风险资产的波动。周一比特币的反弹与油价下跌及债券收益率走软同步发生，这两种趋势往往有利于支持如加密货币等高收益资产的需求。
价格上涨还引发了一波空头清算潮。在反弹期间，约有9.19亿美元的加密货币空头头寸被平仓。其中，比特币空头头寸占比超过5.57亿美元。当空头头寸平仓时，交易者必须买入比特币回补仓位，这可能会进一步推高价格。
在本次行情中，现货比特币ETF的资金流入也提供了额外支撑。多只与加密货币相关的股票也随比特币价格一同走高。
区块链分析公司Glassnode在X平台（原推特）上对价格走势发表评论。Glassnode指出，比特币价格仍保持在真实市场均值和短期持有者成本基础之上，并补充称，历史上维持在这一水平通常与市场走强相关联。
关注90,000美元及更高点位
目前市场焦点已转向90,000美元区域，将其视为比特币的下一个测试关口。加密货币分析师Michaël van de Poppe在X平台上发布了一篇帖子，并附上BTC/USD日线图，他指出90,000至91,000美元是下一个值得关注的区间，认为更强的动能可能将价格推向98,000至100,000美元。
预测市场交易员持类似观点。Polymarket数据显示，到2026年底之前比特币达到100,000美元的概率为42%。
反弹能否持续取决于空头挤压后现货需求是否保持强劲。此外，随着交易者在90,000美元附近布局，比特币还需要吸收新增的杠杆资金。Santiment报告称，比特币的FOMO情绪已达到2024年以来的最高水平。未平仓合约上升7.6%，至约1560亿美元，表明市场正在积累新的杠杆。
