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BTC Market turmoil: Bitcoin soars, oil prices fall sharply
The diplomatic icebreaker between the United States and Iran has injected new optimism into global markets, suggesting geopolitical risks may be reduced. Tehran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if military pressure is eased and the blockade of Iranian ports is lifted. The news caused oil prices to fall sharply, while Bitcoin soared to $87,281.
The economic impact of Iran's statement?
Oil prices fell rapidly as the possibility of a diplomatic restart increased. Brent crude first fell below the US$100 mark to US$99.93, and then fell further to US$94.45, a one-day drop of more than 2%. At the same time, WTI crude fell 2.88%, falling below the US$89 mark. News that Saudi Arabia was preparing to resume crude oil exports from the port of Yanbo put downward pressure on prices, while spot gold prices rose more than US$10 to close at US$4,331.
Factors driving Bitcoin's recent rise?
Bitcoin has previously shown an upward trend, rising by about $10,000 in four days from $76,405 on September 18. Institutional demand is an important driver of this rebound. On September 21, 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded a net inflow of US$999 million. This positive trend has been apparent long ago, with inflows of $159.5 million and $433 million recorded on September 17 and 18, respectively.
The rapid rise pushed market sentiment into extreme optimism. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index released by Alternative Data Platform reached 78 points on September 22, entering the "Extreme Greedy" range.
近期事件，如美国参议院于9月15日拒绝通过《CLARITY法案》以及美联储于9月16日宣布加息0.25个百分点，已被市场充分消化。油价下跌缓解了通胀担忧，加上市场对计划于9月24日举行的特朗普-习特会的乐观预期，推动了风险资产的增长。
众议院金融服务委员会接受《现代化美国储备法案》也增强了比特币的预期。如果该法案成为法律，美国政府将被要求至少持有20年的比特币战略储备。
尽管出现外交缓和迹象，但持续的地区冲突和潜在的利率上调仍构成风险。美伊敌对状态的潜在结束以及沙特港口重新启用对市场反应至关重要。黄金价格上涨表明在市场波动中资金寻求避险。市场乐观情绪仍取决于即将到来的地缘政治峰会。
美伊之间的持续紧张关系、胡塞武装对沙特利益的袭击以及全球快速的利率上调仍是重大的市场威胁。Korbit研究主管Kim Min-seung指出，近期涨幅过后可能出现获利了结行为，并强调通胀趋势将对加密货币市场的未来方向起到关键作用。
