Coinbase预计周五将有181亿美元的BTC和ETH期权到期

比特币与以太坊期权临近季度到期，看涨合约占据主导

据 Coinbase Markets 数据显示，名义价值约 181 亿美元的比特币和以太坊期权正迈向 9 月 25 日的季度到期日。目前，两个市场的看涨期权（Calls）数量均超过看跌期权（Puts）。

市场数据概览

价值约 181 亿美元的比特币和以太坊期权定于周五结算。Coinbase 报告指出，比特币期权的持仓量看跌/看涨比率（Put-Call Ratio）为 0.66，而近期交易量显示该比率为 0.37。以太坊期权的持仓量看跌/看涨比率为 0.61，近期交易量为 0.55。

在周五季度结算前，比特币看涨期权的持仓量主要集中在 90,000 美元和 100,000 美元的行权价附近。随着九月合约临近到期，以太币看涨期权的持仓量则集中在 3,000 美元至 4,000 美元区间。

Coinbase Markets 表示，比特币的持仓量看跌/看涨比率为 0.66，而其 24 小时交易量比率更低，仅为 0.37。以太币的持仓量比率为 0.61，24 小时交易量比率为 0.55。Coinbase 将这两个市场描述为“看涨主导”，且近期的交易流向更加偏向看涨，尤其是比特币市场。

独立数据源验证

另一份基于 Deribit 数据、于 UTC 时间 9 月 23 日 03:53 截取的快照显示，计划在周五到期的比特币反向期权持仓量达 161.3 亿美元，以太币为 21.6 亿美元，合计接近 182.9 亿美元。这与 Coinbase 报告的 181 亿美元读数存在差异，这是由于在两次快照之间价格和头寸发生了变化所致。

相关社交媒体动态指出：比特币和以太坊期权总计约 181 亿美元将于周五到期。比特币的持仓量看跌/看涨比率为 0.66，24 小时交易量比率为 0.37；以太币的持仓量比率为 0.61，24 小时交易量比率为 0.55。尽管两个市场本身已呈现看涨主导态势，但近期的资金流更是严重偏向看涨，尤其是在比特币领域。

比特币期权焦点：90,000 美元与 100,000 美元行权价

比特币占据了周五到期量的大部分。Deribit 数据显示，9 月 25 日到期的比特币看涨期权持仓量为 96.1 亿美元，而看跌期权为 65.2 亿美元，在较晚的快照中产生的看跌/看涨比率为 0.68。

Coinbase 指出，90,000 美元和 100,000 美元是比特币看涨期权持仓量集中的两个区域。周三早些时候，BTC 交易价格约为 86,500 美元，这意味着 90,000 美元行权价高于现货价格约 4%，而 100,000 美元行权价则高出近 16%。市场数据显示，在 9 月 23 日的交易中，比特币价格在 86,149 美元至 86,791 美元之间波动。

需要强调的是，看涨期权的集中分布并不意味着比特币会在到期前达到这些行权价。未平仓合约数（Open Interest）仅统计存在的合约，并不揭示每位交易者买入还是卖出了看涨期权，而且许多期权头寸是作为价差策略、对冲或做市策略的一部分形成的。看跌/看涨比率低于 1 表明在该指标下看涨期权多于看跌期权。Coinbase 报告中比特币近期交易量比率为 0.37，表明看涨交易远多于看跌交易，但仅凭交易量无法确定所有参与者的最终方向性风险敞口。

尽管如此，自 Coinbase 上次发布季度到期更新以来，市场已更接近最大的上行行权价。比特币从 9 月 17 日的约 76,000 美元飙升至本周的 86,000 美元以上，并在 9 月 21 日触及八个月来的高点 87,000 美元以上。分析师认为，比特币向 90,000 美元迈进的动力来自现货需求的回升和空头回补，但要维持这一涨势，仍需持续的买入力量。

Ethereum Options: Focus on the $3,000 to $4,000 call range

Ethereum's Friday expiration contract is small in dollar amounts but also has a bullish dominated structure. Deribit data showed that positions in Ethereum call options expiring on September 25 were approximately $1.34 billion and put options were $820.1 million, which is in line with the 0.61 position put/call ratio reported by Coinbase.

Coinbase said that positions in Ethereum call options are distributed in the range of US$3,000 to US$4,000. Earlier on September 23, Ethereum was trading at close to $2,760, meaning the $3,000 strike price was about 8.7% above the spot price, while the $4,000 strike price was about 45% higher. Market data showed that after closing at $2,753 on Tuesday, ether traded in a range of about $2,750 to $2,766 on Wednesday.

Ether has risen sharply since the middle of last week. The asset traded around $2,416 on September 16 before breaking through $2,600 and hitting an intraday high above $2,805 on September 21. Reuters reported that ether broke through resistance around $2,661.52, which technical analysis sees as a potential upside target of $3,050, provided momentum continues. This is only a chart-based scenario prediction and does not establish the trading price of Ethereum at expiration.

Ethereum previously broke through the $2,550 zone after buyers defended support near $2,400, drawing attention to higher resistance levels.

The scale due on Friday increased compared with the previous month

自 Coinbase Markets 发布其早期第三季度定位数据以来，周五的名义金额有所增加。9 月 15 日，Coinbase 将季度到期的比特币和以太坊期权总持仓量定为约 166 亿美元。其中比特币约占 147.3 亿美元，以太币为 19.2 亿美元。当时，比特币的看跌/看涨比率为 0.52，以太币为 0.57。在那次快照中，比特币占 166 亿美元第三季度期权到期的近 89%。Coinbase 当时确定的比特币最大痛点（Max-Pain）水平约为 72,000 美元，以太币约为 2,200 美元。

截至 9 月 23 日，Coinbase 的合计数字已上升至约 181 亿美元，而报告的看跌/看涨比率已上升至比特币的 0.66 和以太币的 0.61。较高的看跌/看涨比率意味着与早期快照相比，看跌期权相对于看涨期权的比例有所增加，尽管看涨期权在整体持仓量中仍占主导地位。

名义价值的增加不应自动解释为等量的新资金进入市场。名义未平仓合约数会随着未平仓合约数量的变化以及标的资产估值的变化而变化，而比特币和以太币的价格自 9 月 15 日以来已大幅上涨。PerpFinder 基于 Deribit 的方法论指出，美元持仓量数字代表使用远期价格估值的合约数量。它们不衡量支付的期权溢价、缴纳的保证金或在结算时交换的现金金额。

结算机制与市场影响

Quarterly options for Bitcoin and Ethereum will be settled at 08:00 UTC. The September 25 contract belongs to Deribit's quarterly expiration cycle. Deribit pointed out that quarterly BTC and ETH options expire at 08:00 UTC time on the last Friday of March, June, September and December each year. For Friday maturities, the settlement process uses the corresponding Deribit index for the immediate period before the expiration. PerpFinder's methodology states that delivery prices are based on the time-weighted average of the appropriate index between 07:30 and 08:00 UTC time.

The size of the expiration may cause traders and market makers to adjust hedging strategies because the option Delta changes when the spot price approaches the main strike price. There is a large number of open interest at US$90,000, US$100,000, US$3,000 or US$4,000 and there is no requirement that spot prices have to move towards these levels.

Deribit reported that its platform handles approximately 85% of BTC and ETH option activity, making their quarterly maturities an important part of the cryptocurrency derivatives market. Its statistics for August showed that the turnover of Bitcoin options for the month was US$56.13 billion, and the turnover of Ethereum options was US$7.14 billion.

This Friday's quarterly contract is scheduled to expire at 08:00 UTC on September 25. The final nominal value of open interest, put/call ratio and strike price concentration may continue to change before settlement and before a trader closes, rolls over or increases positions.