Ethereum price forecast: low at $2,495.93, this week's trend is determined by two dates

Ethereum's daily low held at US$2,495 in the early hours of Monday.

Ethereum's intraday low hit US$2,495.93 in the early hours of Monday. The $2,495 support we asked about in Sunday's article was maintained and held only with a narrow advantage of 93 cents. In early trading Monday, Ethereum was trading at $2,562.06, up 2.36% in 24 hours. However, prices have still fallen by 5.17% in the past seven days.

There are two fixed dates this week that could have a greater impact on prices than the network's own news: Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) release and Friday's option expiration date.

Overview of Ethereum price data on Monday morning

The following data as of Monday morning is sourced from CoinGecko. The current price of Ethereum is US$2,562.06. The intraday high was $2,567.88 and the low was $2,495.93. The market value is US$312.9 billion, and turnover in the past 24 hours is US$9.83 billion. This means that a one-day turnover rate is about 3.1% of total market value, which is normal on a calm Monday.

Ethereum's historical high is US$4,946.05, and it is still 48.2% away from the high. Bitcoin's current price is US$83,921, 33.4% below its peak. The gap between the two numbers reveals a key fact this fall: Ethereum has recovered less from previous setbacks than Bitcoin.

Holding mechanism for US$2,495 mark

周日我们的文章曾探讨以太坊价格在2,504美元时，2,495美元水平能否撑住。隔夜订单簿给出了答案：过去24小时的最低交易价为2,495.93美元。随后价格上涨2.65%至当前读数。

这一精确到分数的支撑并非巧合或魔法，而是由订单簿中的买单堆积所致。许多投资者会在整数价位（如2,500美元）设置限价买单，而这些买单往往会被略低于该价位的卖单成交。只要这些成交量存在，该水平就具有可靠性；一旦订单被消化，支撑效应便会消失。

本周两大固定事件：周三通胀数据与周五期权到期

美国9月消费者价格指数将于纽约时间10月14日上午8:30（德国时间下午2:30）公布。《The Crypto Times》在10月12日的周前瞻中预计，环比增长率为0.6%，同比增长率为3.6%至3.7%，核心通胀率分别为0.2%和2.5%。

另一个重要日期是10月16日（周五）比特币和以太坊期权的到期日。同一份预览基于衍生品交易所Deribit的初步快照显示，比特币未平仓合约价值约12.5亿美元，以太坊为2.475亿美元。此外，本周还将迎来美国大型银行的季度财报：摩根大通、高盛、花旗集团和富国银行将于周二公布，美国银行和摩根士丹利将于周三公布。周四将公布生产者价格指数、零售销售和初请失业金人数。下一次美联储会议定于10月27日和28日举行。

期权到期如何影响以太坊价格

期权是一种权利而非义务。看涨期权买方有权以设定价格买入以太坊，看跌期权买方有权以设定价格卖出。这些权利通常由不希望公开承担风险的对手方（通常是专业交易者）出售。这些交易者通过在现货市场买卖以太坊来对冲风险，并随着价格变动不断调整对冲头寸。

这种调整是价格传导的关键渠道。随着到期日临近，所需对冲策略对小幅价格波动的反应会更加剧烈，因为价格的微小波动可能决定期权是否作废或被行权。因此，在最后几小时内，对手方会更快、更多地买卖以太坊。这并不会单向推动价格，但会增加价格的波动性。到期后，压力突然消散，市场往往变得比以往更平静。

The gap of 93 cents is between the water level and the wave peak, which is a reflection of how the $2,495 mark was held within a narrow range early Monday morning.

For Ethereum, option expiration is only a small leverage factor.

Comparing the two sets of data, we can find that Ethereum's US$247.5 million open interest only accounts for 19.8% of Bitcoin's US$1.25 billion maturity. Ethereum accounts for about one-fifth of derivatives trading volume, while its US$312.9 billion market value accounts for about 18.6% of Bitcoin's US$1.69 trillion market value. The proportions are roughly the same, which means that Friday is of equal importance to Ethereum as it is to Bitcoin, that is, moderate.

However, if you turn your attention to Wednesday's inflation data, the conclusion is the opposite. The inflation index affects all risky assets at once and works through the interest rate path rather than being limited to a single derivatives exchange. If the data is higher than expected, it will have a direct impact on Ethereum, which has performed weaker than other currencies recently.

Forecast since October 8: BitMine's positions and price changes

In an article dated October 8, we described that BitMine was about 100,000 Ethereum short of its target of holding 5% of all tokens, when its position was about 6 million. Two things have happened since then:

首先，价格结束了下跌趋势并开始反弹。10月7日报价为2,598美元，周日为2,504美元，今日为2,562.06美元。相较于周日，价格上涨了58美元；相较于10月7日，仍低36美元（1.40%）。其次，当天的开放性问题已转化为一个包含两个关键日期的具体一周。市场上最大的买家已宣布其上限，而本周的外部需求主要来自利率预期，而非企业资产负债表。

ETF资金流出持续，但规模正在缩小

根据数据服务商SoSoValue的数据，美国以太坊现货ETF在10月9日录得5,610万美元的净流出，这是连续第九个交易日出现负余额。前一天的流出额为7,254万美元，流出量减少了近23%。从10月5日至9日的一周内，总流出额为5.422亿美元；自9月29日以来的整个期间，总流出额为6.972亿美元。

虽然听起来情况严峻，但从比例上看并不那么戏剧化。自产品推出以来，净流入这些基金的净金额为132.6亿美元。过去两周的流出额仅占其中的5.3%。作为对比：10月7日的文章提到有六天流出日，现在已有九天，且每日流出金额正在下降。这种减弱的趋势尚未构成反转，但也不同于加速撤离。

过去30天以太坊落后比特币6.7个百分点

In the past 30 days, Ethereum has risen 2.00%, and Bitcoin has risen 8.72%. The 6.72 percentage point gap describes Ethereum's performance this fall. The situation has not changed in the past seven days: Ethereum fell 5.17%, and Bitcoin fell 1.86%.

If you hold a mixed position, your portfolio will automatically shift during this period. If you held the equivalent value of two currencies in September, you now have significantly more Bitcoin than Ethereum by value. No one proactively determines this offset, and unless you notice it and adjust it the next time you buy, the offset will persist. Portfolio trackers can show this change in percentage points, and relevant tools can be found in our tax tool and portfolio trackers comparison.

Holding period and 1,000 euro threshold: tax check before Wednesday

German investors sometimes sell for the wrong reasons before important dates like Wednesday. For private investors, Article 23 of the German Income Tax Law stipulates a one-year holding period. If you hold Ethereum for more than twelve months and then sell it, the proceeds are exempt from personal income tax. If it is sold within one year and the total proceeds of all private disposals for that year exceed the threshold of € 1,000, income tax will be payable at the personal tax rate.

The word "threshold" here needs to be understood literally. It is not gradually reduced like tax exemptions: 999 euros of proceeds are completely tax-free, while the entire amount of 1,001 euros is subject to tax. Losses on such transactions can only offset similar gains, but can be carried forward to other years. Therefore, the practical thing to do before Wednesday is not to check the chart, but to confirm your purchase date. If the purchase was made eleven months ago, the tax cost of selling out of panic may be higher than the price drop you are trying to avoid.

Leverage risk before a known date: Where is the clearing price

Before the scheduled date, leveraged positions become more dangerous because prices fluctuate intensively in the minutes after release. The clearing price of a position does not move, but the probability of touching it in a short period of time increases.

Specifically: Look at the price at which your position was liquidated and compare the distance to the volatility in recent days. The intraday low was US$2,495.93 and the high was US$2,567.88, a difference of US$72 (2.8%). On a Wednesday that includes inflation data, a buffer of less than 3% is mathematically dangerous. Either reduce the size of the position or increase the margin and do so before launch, as spreads usually widen after launch.

Ways for German investors to participate in this option expiration

For most German investors, Friday is a date they experience indirectly. Large cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges do not serve EU retail customers, and under the Cryptocurrency Asset Markets Regulation (MiCA), any provider serving EU customers needs to be authorized. German regulator BaFin lists the institutions holding authorizations in its public register.

There are still two routes, but each has its shortcomings. The leverage limit for cryptocurrency contracts for difference (CFD) for retail customers is 2:1, a requirement by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) and has been permanently adopted by BaFin. Although the cap limits losses, it incurs overnight financing costs. The second route is in the spot market on a regulated exchange, where the expiration date only reflects higher volatility. Which trading platforms operate under MiCA and their charging standards can be found in our comparison of the best cryptocurrency exchanges.

Our assessment of Ethereum prices: Wednesday weighs more heavily than Friday

From the editorial department's perspective, Wednesday's inflation index is the most important date of the week, while Friday's option expiration is a secondary story. The evidence is above: The $247.5 million Ethereum open interest is only one-fifth of Bitcoin's, and option hedging pressure lasts only a few hours. In contrast, inflation data will push interest rate expectations towards the October 27 and 28 meetings, affecting the price of every risky asset in the portfolio.

There is one number that contradicts this view and the most serious issue in this article: nine consecutive days of outflows from Ethereum funds suggest that institutional demand is currently absent regardless of the macro outlook. Therefore, if there is a tenth day of outflow on Thursday, a friendly Wednesday may end in vain. BitMine Supervisory Board Chairman Tom Lee publicly expects the price to exceed $5,000 by the end of the year. This is a voice with self-interest, not a market consensus. We assess the situation here and do not provide buy or sell recommendations.

Four price levels frame Ethereum's trend this week: upside and downside

On the upside side, the next obstacle is US$2,567.88 (Monday's early intraday high), and the top of it begins to enter what technical analysis considers to be a resistance area of US$2,600 to US$2,700. The October 7 reading of $2,598 is in the middle of the range and 1.40% from the current price.

On the downside, the first is the $2,495 mark, which is the level held with a 93-cent advantage early Monday morning. Below it, the same analysis points to a support area of $2,400 to $2,500. The lower level is the 200-day moving average, which one review positions at around $2,130, which means there is 16.9% room below the current price. This line is not a target for the week, but rather describes how far the bottom will be if Wednesday performs extremely poorly.

Operational recommendations before Friday: Purchase date is more important than the US$2,495 mark

For this week's three-step strategy, please implement it in order:

1. Check your purchase date before responding on Wednesday.
2. If your purchase is less than twelve months old, taxes and fees will be incurred on the sale once all private disposals for the year exceed 1,000 euros. For information on which tools can clearly list purchase dates and expiration dates, see our Tax Tools and Portfolio Tracker Comparison.
3. Check trading venues and fees before placing an order.
4. Spreads usually widen around 2:30 pm on Wednesdays, when the cost of market orders is higher than usual. For information on which institutions are allowed to operate under MiCA and how much they charge per order, please see a comparison of the best cryptocurrency exchanges.
5. For leveraged positions, measure the distance from the clearing price.
6. Considering the intraday 2.8% range, a buffer of less than 3% is too little on days that include inflation data. Investors who use derivatives platforms permanently can find the terms of the platform in the Perpetual Contract Decentralized Exchanges (Perp DEXs) comparison.

(As of October 12, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Price and fee structures are subject to change; please check terms with your provider before purchasing.)