Ethereum: Bulls face key nodes on the daily chart

Key Points

The current trading price of Ethereum is US$1750, which fell 1.10% after hitting a high of US$1783 during the day. The 50-day moving average is at $1787, and horizontal resistance overlaps with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level around $1787. Prices run below the 50-day, 100-day ($2024) and 200-day ($2245) moving averages.

Why the rejection of $1787 has significant implications

Ethereum rebounded from its June low of $1505, but was blocked in the precise price zone where three independent technical indicators met. The 50-day moving average is at $1787, as is the horizontal supply area that originated from the June consolidation period, while the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, which fell from $2465 to $1505, also falls around $1787. This dense resonance usually triggers the market\'s first meaningful reaction during a counter-trend rally, and the current daily candle chart is testing whether this reaction can last.

From a structural perspective, unless prices recover the area, the bearish trend will still hold. Throughout the June decline, prices remained below the 50-day moving average, while the 100-day and 200-day moving averages were at $274 and $495 respectively above spot prices. This arrangement historically corresponds to the distribution rather than the fundraising stage. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is 52.91, which is in the neutral region and does not provide a directional signal, confirming that the momentum has not yet exceeded the current oscillation range.

Technical in-depth analysis

Moving average structure: Ethereum\'s daily chart on the Bitstamp platform shows that the 50-day moving average ($1787) slopes downward and constitutes dynamic resistance. The 100-day ($2024) and 200-day ($2245) moving averages remain bearish, which means that even if $1787 is recovered, it will only technically open up room for resistance to the next moving average, rather than an immediate trend reversal.

Fibonacci reference: Calculated from the high of the US$2465 band to the low of the US$1505 band, the 0.236 retracement level is about US$1787, the 0.382 retracement level is about US$1872, and the 0.5 midpoint point is about US$1985. 0.236 It is the statistically shallowest retracement level, and its rejection often means that bears still control the initiative over a larger band.

Bottom of the range: The US$1505 low coincides with the horizontal support that limits the bottom of the June range. If the daily close falls below the US$1700 mark, this level may be used again as the next technical downside reference level.

Points that traders should pay attention to

Bear confirmation path: Daily closing price is below US$1787 resonance zone confirmation rejection. It then fell below the 0.236 Fibonacci level near $1787 and retested the level as resistance, providing a more structured short entry point than capturing the upper shadow line in real time.

Look at multiple failure paths: The daily line closed above $1787 and regained its 50-day moving average, which will change the short-term structure. Historically, entering the market after retesting the recovered support level can achieve a better risk-reward ratio than chasing a breakthrough through the positive line itself, because when prices run below the downward sloping 200-day moving average, false breakthroughs are still the dominant result.

Risks Traders Should Consider

This technical form faces three specific execution risks. First, the resonance area may undergo multiple tests before the final breakthrough, and a single rejection candle line is not statistically enough to prove a directional conclusion. Second, 0.236 Fibonacci is the weakest link in the standard retracement level, and prices often pierce it directly and quickly reach 0.382 near $1872 without producing a lasting rejection effect. Third, macro catalyst and spot ETF fund flow data may cover technical patterns at any trading session, especially when the RSI is in the median range and both long and short sides lack momentum.