Ethereum price analysis: A new round of correction keeps ETH further away from $2,000

Ethereum Price Analysis: Rebound is blocked, bulls still need to work hard

Ethereum has been trying to recover from the sell-off in early June, but its rebound has been blocked in key technical resistance areas. While short-term momentum remains constructive, both the daily structure and the Coinbase Premium Index suggest buyers still have work to do before confirming a broader trend reversal.

Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart

Looking at daily charts, Ethereum was trading at around $1.74,000 after bouncing back from a key demand area of $1.5,000. The area once again attracted buyers and triggered a rapid rebound, allowing the asset to hit the $1.85,000 area again. Despite the rebound, Ethereum is still below the long-term downtrend line that has suppressed its prices since last year. The rally also stalled below the $1.85,000 resistance level, which almost coincides with the trend line and is the first major obstacle buyers must overcome. Compounding the bearish outlook for the higher time frame is that prices continue to trade below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 200-day moving average in the approximately $2.2,000 region, which is significantly higher. This suggests that despite the recent rebound, the broader trend remains bearish. If the daily closing price decisively breaks through the US$1.85,000 resistance level, it may trigger a move towards the next supply area of approximately US$2,000 to US$2.2,000, where the moving average is also located. Until then, the current rally appears to be just a rebound in a larger downtrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal. On the downside, losing the US$1.5,000 support level will put the market into a deeper decline and intensify the bearish trend.

ETH/USDT 4-hour chart

The 4-hour chart shows that the short-term market structure has improved after a strong rebound from the US$1.5,000 area. Ethereum has successfully recovered its previous short-term high of about $1.6,000, and after the breakthrough, the region now serves as a bullish order block support. The latest price movements suggest that Ethereum has failed to move higher further and is consolidating below the US$1.85,000 resistance zone. Recently, the K-line has shown slight profit-taking, while the RSI has cooled from overbought conditions and fell back near the midline, indicating that short-term bullish momentum has weakened, but has not completely disappeared. As long as prices remain above the $1.65,000 order block, the current pullback appears to be a healthy correction in a continuing recovery. If we successfully break through US$1.85,000, it may open the way to the psychological barrier of US$2,000. However, failure to hold $1.65,000 could divert momentum back to sellers and increase the possibility of testing the $1.5,000 support area again.

Emotional analysis

The Coinbase Premium Index continues to provide cautious background information. The indicator is still below the neutral zero line, with the latest reading of around-0.07, indicating that Ethereum is still trading at a discount on Coinbase relative to other major exchanges. Historically, continued positive readings reflect stronger buying activity by U.S. institutional participants. In contrast, the current negative premium suggests that despite Ethereum\'s recent rebound, institutional demand remains relatively sluggish. The chart also shows that in recent months, the index has failed in many attempts to establish a lasting positive premium, which means that the rebound generally lacks sustained institutional accumulation. Although the index has recently rebounded, suggesting market sentiment is improving, it has not yet returned to positive territory, making it difficult to conclude that large U.S. buyers have returned in large numbers. In an effort to give greater confidence to the broader recovery, Ethereum broke through the $1.85,000 resistance level while the Coinbase Premium Index returned to positive territory, providing stronger confirmation that institutional demand is beginning to support the rise. Until then, Ethereum\'s recovery seemed constructive, but remained technically vulnerable to a new round of selling pressure.