Ethereum price analysis: ETH faces critical test after latest rebound

Ethereum Price Analysis: Facing a Critical Test after the latest rebound

Ethereum has rebounded significantly after holding on to recent lows, and buyers are gradually rebuilding momentum. Although the large cycle is still limited by major resistance levels, the structure of the small cycle has improved. On-chain activity appears to be stabilizing after months of cooling online engagement.

Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart

From the daily chart, despite the recent rebound, Ethereum is still in a broader bearish structure. The asset remains in the downtrend channel that has dominated the market\'s downtrend for months, while the 100-day and 200-day moving averages continue to tilt downward above current prices, reinforcing the fact that the dominant trend is bearish.

After prices fell sharply into the $1500 demand area, buyers actively stepped in, triggering a rebound towards key $1800 resistance. This area is particularly important because it coincides with the upper trajectory of the descent channel, forming an important resistance intersection.

The RSI indicator has rebounded above the midline after previously entering oversold territory, indicating an improvement in bullish momentum. However, the indicator has not yet reached overbought status, and if the resistance level is broken, there is still room for further upside.

If the daily closing price can decisively stand above the resistance level of US$1800, it may open the next supply area-the US$2000-US$2200 range, where previous support has turned into resistance. On the contrary, if it is blocked in the current region, the focus may return to the support level of US$1500. Once this level is lost, the possibility of further decline to a lower target will be increased.

The ETH/USDT 4-hour chart

The 4-hour chart shows a more positive picture. Ethereum reached a clearly higher low after breaking through its recent consolidation range above $1500, indicating that buyers have regained short-term control.

Higher lows near the US$1750 region have now been confirmed, suggesting that market structure is improving. Prices are currently approaching the $1800 to $1850 resistance zone, which has suppressed multiple rebound attempts in recent weeks.

The momentum has also increased, and the RSI indicator has climbed again above the neutral 50 level after falling back from its previous high. This suggests buying pressure remains, although resistance above may still trigger temporary consolidation.

As long as Ethereum remains above the higher low area of $1700, the short-term bullish structure will remain valid. If it successfully exceeds US$1850, it will strengthen expectations that prices will extend to the US$2000 to US$2200 supply area. However, failing to hold higher lows will negate the recent rebound structure and shift the focus back to the $1640 order block area or even the key rebound area of $1500.

On-chain analysis

Ethereum\'s active address indicator continues to show a downward trend after peaking at the beginning of the year. The 30-day exponential moving average of active addresses has steadily declined, indicating that online participation has cooled significantly compared to previous highs.

Although activity has shown a long-term downward trend, the rate of decline appears to be slowing, suggesting that the network may be entering a stable phase rather than a continuous deterioration. From historical experience, the period when active addresses stabilize after a long period of weakness often coincides with the consolidation stage of prices before the next round of general direction changes.

Meanwhile, Ethereum has rebounded from recent lows despite sluggish growth in active addresses. This divergence suggests that the current rebound is driven more by improved market sentiment and positions than by a comprehensive recovery in demand on the chain.

For the rebound to evolve into a more sustainable bullish trend, the gradual increase in active addresses and continued price increases will provide stronger confirmation of the return of capital and user activity to the Ethereum network. Until then, we should combine improvements in the technical structure with the still-sluggish chain engagement, which suggests cautious optimism for the time being rather than confirmation that the trend has completely reversed.