U.S. Bitcoin ETF ends eight-week capital outflows, with a net inflow of US$197 million...

Why did cryptocurrency ETFs turn positive again?

U.S. spot bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds achieved weekly net inflows for the first time since early May, attracting a combined $281.8 million in the five trading days ended last Friday. The net inflow of spot bitcoin ETFs during the week was approximately US$197.4 million, ending a record eight consecutive weeks of capital outflows, during which period the cumulative outflow of these products was approximately US$8.26 billion. The net inflow of the spot Ethereum ETF was approximately US$84.4 million, also ending an eight-week downtrend that was in line with the longest negative record of its kind.

The rebound marks a change in direction after nearly two months of sustained capital outflows, but the scale of inflows shows that market demand remains cautious. In the previous eight weeks, these two types of ETFs had a combined outflow of $9.46 billion. Net inflows of $281.8 million this week only made up for about 3% of lost capital. This means that the trend shift is worthy of attention, but it is not yet decisive. Investors have indeed returned to these products, but the flow of funds data has not yet shown a massive or aggressive reallocation of funds to spot cryptocurrency exposure. This is more of a pause in selling pressure and a limited return of buying after a long retreat.

How strong is the rebound of Bitcoin ETF?

The Bitcoin ETF opened the trading week on Monday with a net inflow of $265.69 million, and recorded a smaller increase of $21.44 million on Tuesday. However, the previous strength was partially reversed on Wednesday and Thursday, with a combined net outflow of $180.16 million for the two days. On Friday, the category ended with a net inflow of $90.44 million, bringing the total net inflow for the week to approximately $197.4 million. The inflow in a single day on Monday alone exceeded the sum of the entire trading week, which shows the fragile foundation of the rebound in five full trading days. Buying was also quite concentrated on Friday.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin trust had a net inflow of US$86.83 million, while VanEck's HODL product had a net inflow of US$3.61 million. None of the remaining Bitcoin funds recorded net traffic that day. This concentration is interesting because a healthy rebound should usually be reflected in the participation of multiple issuers. However, the data showed demand was selective, with the largest product absorbing almost all of the net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs on Friday.

Investor revelation: Bitcoin ETF backflow ended a record losing streak, but failed to erase losses caused by the previous eight weeks. The rebound made up for only a small portion of recent outflows and was concentrated in a small number of funds.

Is the recovery of the Ethereum ETF clearer?

The net inflow of the spot Ethereum ETF during the week was approximately US$84.4 million, the first positive growth since early May. Eight weeks earlier, the funds lost about $1.2 billion. The Ethereum ETF recorded net inflows in four of the five trading days that day, with the largest increase on Wednesday, reaching US$70.48 million. The net outflow on Thursday of US$52.08 million was the only negative value that week, and on Friday it increased another 18.43 million. BlackRock's ETHA products had net inflows of $16.2 million, Fidelity's FETH products had net inflows of $2.23 million, and other Ethereum ETF products were flat on the day.

In terms of percentages, Ethereum funds have a higher proportion of recouping recent losses than Bitcoin funds. The rebound in the Ethereum ETF made up for about 7% of the capital lost during the eight-week decline, compared with about 2.4% for the Bitcoin ETF. Even so, these two types of funds are still well below the amount of capital lost during the outflow cycle.

Investor revelation: Ethereum ETF's capital flow improvement is better than Bitcoin compared to recent losses, but the recovery is still small. This category requires wider issuer participation and higher trading activity to view the return of funds as a signal of sustainable demand.

What does this rebound mean for market demand?

The reversal of capital flows is accompanied by a weakening of the trading environment. Bitcoin ETF trading volume during the week was approximately US$8.41 billion, the lowest for five full trading days since October 2024. Ethereum ETF trading volume is approximately US$2.05 billion, the lowest weekly total since May 2025. Low trading volume weakens the effectiveness of capital return signals. After eight consecutive weeks of outflows, a positive week of inflows is undoubtedly constructive, but sluggish trading activity suggests investors have not yet returned to the market with strong belief.

In addition, these two types of ETFs remain negative so far this year. Since the beginning of 2026, the cumulative net outflow of Bitcoin ETF has been approximately US$5.34 billion, while the Ethereum Fund has lost approximately US$1.35 billion. Net asset data also shows that price performance remains crucial. On Friday, Bitcoin ETF net assets were $77.42 billion, while cumulative net inflows since launch were $51.28 billion; Ethereum ETF net assets totaled $9.59 billion, approximately $1.38 billion lower than the cumulative net inflow of $10.97 billion for this category.

Bitcoin traded at around $64,300 early Saturday, while Ethereum fluctuated around $1810. With prices still under pressure and ETF activity sluggish, the latest week of capital inflows should be interpreted as an attempt to stabilize the market rather than a comprehensive reset in institutional demand.