Ethereum price analysis: $1,872 may be a critical turning point

Ethereum pulled back after breaking through key resistance, and US$1872 decided to move forward next.

On July 15, Ethereum broke through two resistance levels, but failed to successfully close above the second resistance level, causing the price to fall back to near the breakthrough zone. ETH is currently trading at approximately $1876, almost directly above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (approximately $1872).

This level has shifted from resistance to potential support. If this position can be held, it means that the buyer is still in control of the situation after the breakthrough; if it fails, it may expose the top of the previous July consolidation range-around US$1810.

Key Points

US$1872 is now the breakthrough confirmation level; US$1940 to US$1960 is the first upward target; a loss of US$1810 will reopen the underlying support space; although whale earnings constitute support, it is not enough to confirm a trend reversal.

Whether a breakthrough can be established depends on US$1872.

The failure to close above the second resistance level does not in itself deny the effectiveness of a breakthrough. Prices have fallen back to the first important support level formed by this rise, rather than falling directly back into previous ranges.

A successful step back on $1872 will establish the 0.382 Fibonacci level as support and increase the probability of another upswing. The first upward zone is between $1940 and $1960, followed by a convergence of stronger resistance between $1985 and $2000, where the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level coincides with the 100-day simple moving average.

The US$1810 level previously suppressed ETH for nearly 10 days before breaking through. If the daily line closes below this level, prices will fall back below the top of the July consolidation range and open up room for a deeper correction to the US$1720 to US$1745 region, where the 0.236 Fibonacci level meets the 50-day moving average.

Kinetic energy is biased towards buyers but not overheated

The 14th Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 60.9, still above its signal line. So momentum is biased towards a bullish scenario, but the readings are not yet high enough to indicate that the market is overheating.

This leaves room for ETH to continue moving upwards after successful backstepping. Kinetic energy alone cannot establish a broader trend reversal, especially when the 100-day moving averages (approximately $2000) and 200-day moving averages (approximately $2100) are still above current prices.

These moving averages constitute a more important structural test. ETH can confirm a short-term breakthrough above $1872 while remaining in a broader downtrend until it begins to recover the resistance cluster near $2000 and $2100.

Whales have returned to profitability

CryptoQuant data shared by analysts adds support to bullish views. The Ethereum Whale, which holds more than 100,000 ETH units, has returned to profitable status after a rebound, while its holdings have reached a record high.

Historical data shows that periods when this group falls into losses are rare and usually occur near the bottom of the cycle. Previous periods of return to profitability either coincided with broader market gains or were accompanied by short-term market rebounds.

The indicator suggests that the rebound has put large holders back on the basis of their estimated costs. This could reduce short-term financial stress for this group, consistent with signs of improving market structure.

However, historical samples are limited. This model is based on only about three previous cases and is not sufficient to demonstrate that whale profitability can reliably identify a persistent bottom. Nor will it be able to break through the technical resistance formed by the 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

ETH's breakthrough window is limited

The clearest confirmation signal will be that the daily closing price will continue to exceed US$1872 in the next few days. This will verify the effectiveness of resistance to support and strengthen the argument for price moves towards $1940 to $1960.

A daily close below US$1810 will negate the pattern. Prices may fall back below the top of the July consolidation range, repeating the failed pattern of limiting ETH in early July, and turning attention to the $1720 to $1745 support area.

The form remains constructive but has not yet been confirmed until either condition is met. Kinetic energy and whale profitability favor buyers, while a broader downtrend and upper moving averages continue to limit the depth to which the current rally can be interpreted as a structural reversal.