Ethereum prices soared after CPI data, but hidden warning signs were not mentioned

The latest U.S. inflation data injected momentum into risky assets, and Ethereum rose strongly. ETH prices climbed, futures trading volume surged, and funds poured into spot ETFs within days. On the surface, everything looks good, which explains why many investors only focus on the rally and ignore the movements below the surface.

The other side of the story deserves closer examination. Ethereum's network activity continues to grow, but the fee revenue generated by the activity declines in reverse. If the current rally for Ethereum continues in the coming months, this difference could become a key factor.

AI agent aixbt (@aixbt_agent) points out this growing gap. Its analysis believes that external capital has pushed Ethereum higher, but the network's fee engine is weakening. The impact of this combination may far exceed many people realize.

Ethereum network activity continues to grow, but fee revenue declines

Ethereum processes more transactions than ever before. Daily transaction volume increased by 34% month-on-month, exceeding 2 million transactions. Stable currency activity also expanded, with 30-day transfers reaching US$73 billion, a 24% increase from the previous quarter.

These data often paint a health picture of Ethereum. More transactions often mean greater network usage, but another indicator is quite different.

During the same 12-month period, Ethereum only generated US$344 million in fees. Although online activity continued to expand, fee revenue fell by 34%.

The main reason is the expansion and upgrading of Ethereum. Rollup currently handles approximately 95% of Ethereum transactions. These upgrades significantly reduce block space costs, thereby reducing transaction fees paid by users.

This creates an important trade-off. Ethereum has become faster and cheaper. Lower transaction costs also reduce the amount of ETH destroyed from circulation through EIP-1559.

ETH's daily trading volume increased by 34% month-on-month at US$1800, but handling fees fell by 34% to US$344 million over the same period. Ethereum's throughput growth exceeded payment demand, weakening the destruction mechanism behind the rally. The daily transaction volume exceeded 2 million, and the value of 30-day stablecoin transfers increased by 24% month-on-month...

--aixbt (@aixbt_agent) July 17, 2026

Ethereum destruction mechanism is facing greater pressure

Ethereum introduced EIP-1559, aiming to destroy a portion of each transaction fee. When network usage incurs sufficient costs, the system removes ETH from circulation. Lower fees mean fewer coins disappear through the destruction mechanism. Stronger networks no longer automatically generate stronger supply curtailments because transaction costs have dropped significantly.

A simple decomposition helps explain this relationship:

More Ethereum transactions increase network activity. Cheaper block space reduces average transaction costs. Lower costs reduce the amount of ETH destroyed. Smaller destruction weakens one source of supply shrinkage.

This does not mean that Ethereum faces imminent problems. Rather, it means that the Internet is now more dependent on continued demand than in previous market cycles.

CPI data triggers massive buying of Ethereum futures

Recent price movements reveal another interesting story. ETH prices accelerated after the CPI report was released on July 14. Aixbt pointed out that within an hour of the release of inflation data, about US$1.2 billion poured into Binance Ethereum futures.

Open positions have also risen sharply since the end of June. Total positions increased by 28%, reaching approximately US$20 billion. Liquidation data shows another important detail: On the day of the rise, short positions accounted for 96% of liquidations, adding fuel to Ethereum's rise.

Demand for spot ETFs has also joined in. Funds tracking Ethereum added another $112 million in two trading days. This new funding supports ETH's strength relative to Bitcoin. ETH/BTC has risen 8% in the past seven days to 0.029. Even so, the pair is still below the 0.030 level, a level that many market participants are still watching closely.

External capital drives Ethereum prices more strongly in proportion to network costs.

Aixbt believes that the current price strength of Ethereum relies more on external capital than on the internal economy of the network. New money poured into the futures market. Spot ETFs continue to increase exposure. ETH also strengthened relative to Bitcoin. These developments have supported Ethereum, although fee revenue continues to decline.

This formed a different rally from previous cycles. Early bull markets often combined strong network usage, high transaction fees and aggressive token destruction. Current market conditions show increased usage, but fee income levels are different.

This difference will not automatically end the rally. It simply means that future price performance may be more dependent on continued capital inflows.

Ethereum prices may face two different paths

Ethereum is now somewhere between two possible outcomes. Continued ETF demand and institutional buying may push ETH prices higher even if fee income is under pressure. Another flood of capital into futures markets could have similar results.

Another possibility depends on the network itself. If transaction fees remain low and ETH destruction continues to shrink, higher activity alone may not provide the same support. New purchases will need to replace the missing supply contraction.

Judging from the Ethereum chart, ETH/BTC is approaching the much-watched 0.030 area. Breaking through this level could enhance Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin. If a breakthrough fails, the focus may still be on whether external demand is strong enough.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much will an Ethereum be worth by 2030? Financial analysts and industry experts predict that by 2030, the value of Ethereum (ETH) could be between $2200 and $40000, with a realistic baseline consensus centered around $8000 to $12000. Due to the high volatility and speculative nature of the cryptocurrency market, different institutions use different valuation models, adoption rates and technical milestones, and forecasts vary greatly.

Is it worth investing US$100 in Ethereum? Of course it is worth it! $100 is a great way to start your Ethereum investment journey. Many platforms allow buying a fraction of the token, so you don't have to pay full price to own part of Ethereum. This allows you to test the water and learn the basics.