Holders Digest: Will U.S. policy be clear this week? Bitcoin sword points to US$80,000

The legislative momentum of the US CLARITY Act is weakening, and political and ethical disputes are intertwined

The momentum of the US Clarification Act seems to be weakening, and political and ethical disputes conflict with the Senate's potential advancement efforts. Prediction Market Polymarket puts the probability of passing the bill this year at about 40%, citing opposition from Democratic lawmakers and noting that ethical disputes could undermine broader cross-party cooperation.

Outside Washington, cryptocurrencies 'performance in the second quarter was polarized: mainstream trading activity continued to contract, while forecast market trading volume hit record highs. At the same time, France moved to block Polymarket, highlighting how regulation shapes where and how prediction markets operate.

Core Points

Polymarket estimates that the Clarity Act has a 40% chance of passing the Senate this year. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said a vote would be held before August 10, but ethical disputes complicated Democratic support. CoinGecko's cryptocurrency industry report showed that spot trading volume on the top ten centralized exchanges fell from $2.7 trillion in the first quarter to $1.95 trillion in the second quarter. Markets are forecast to bucked the trend, with nominal trading volume reaching US$113.8 billion in the second quarter. The global market value of tokenized stocks hit a new high of US$2.3 billion, with Ethereum (34%) and BNB Chain (30%) leading the way.

Vote on Clarification Act faces ethical test

Several Democratic lawmakers have expressed resistance to the Clarity Act, including Chris Murphy, Jeff Merkley and Chris Van Hollen. The focus of controversy is how the bill intertwines with the politics and potential conflicts of interest advocated by cryptocurrencies. According to reports, Senate Majority Leader John Thun said the key vote could take place as early as this week and could be completed by August 10 at the latest. But the political agenda on its own may not be enough to push the bill through: Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren is trying to "sabotage the vote" by highlighting the alleged link between Trump and cryptocurrency profits. Warren's push was based on a 2025 disclosure claiming Trump made more than $1 billion from cryptocurrencies last year. That's why Senate Democrats may be reluctant to support the bill unless it includes a clause prohibiting elected officials from promoting or issuing cryptocurrencies.

"The ethical issue is the elephant in the room." This sentence comes from Summer Mursinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association and former member of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "For my members and what we advocate on Capitol Hill... listen, whatever decisions you make on ethical issues, that's really not our concern," she said. That is politics, that is Congress, and that is a matter for elected officials. But please don't let it ruin all the hard work we put into other parts of the bill."

For investors and builders, the actual risks are immediate: Even if the Clarification Act makes progress on substantive market structure provisions, its passage may depend on whether lawmakers accept ethical barriers that meet Democratic conditions. Market participants should be watching whether negotiators will propose a specific ban on official cryptocurrency activities, or whether the bill's schedule will be delayed despite Thun's timetable.

Second quarter reveals divergence: spot weakness, forecast market strength

The cryptocurrency market overall was weak in the second quarter, but the forecast market was the exception. CoinGecko's industry report showed spot trading volume on the top ten centralized exchanges fell from $2.7 trillion in the first quarter to $1.95 trillion in the second quarter. Derivatives trading has also cooled. Perpetual contract trading volume on centralized exchanges fell 10% to US$12.7 trillion, while the stablecoin market fell 1.6% to US$305.1 billion.

Against this backdrop, the market is forecast to record its strongest quarter in history, with nominal trading volume reaching US$113.8 billion. This is mainly due to Polymarket's specific category: the platform's World Cup championship market attracted more than US$3.3 billion in transaction volume, and contracts related to the 2028 U.S. presidential election are also its largest market.

France blockades Polymarket, tightening supervision

Although the forecast market appears to have attracted record participation, regulatory action is limiting its accessibility. France's National Gaming Authority has ordered Internet service providers to block Polymarket on the grounds that it believes forecasting markets may be illegal gambling. Polymarket is currently blocked in 33 countries, but users can still frequently access it through tools such as VPNs-a reminder that enforcement models can be different and compliance risks can change as regulators take action.

For market participants, this means that predicting market growth may be limited not only by liquidity and user demand, but also by whether regulators view the platform as sports betting, a financial product, or something in between. The clarity of laws to be introduced in France and elsewhere may affect where liquidity will be concentrated in the future.

The market value of tokenized stocks reached US$2.3 billion, and traditional finance's continued exploration of tokenized stocks has also reached a milestone. The global market value of tokenized stocks rose to a record $2.3 billion on Wednesday, according to Token Terminal data. Ethereum leads with 34%, followed by BNB Chain with 30%, and Solana with 23%. Growth is mainly driven by specific activities by issuers and exchanges. Kraken Exchange's xStocks represents $507 million, Binance's bStocks represents $334 million, while Ondo Finance remains the largest issuer of tokenized shares, with shares on the chain worth $955 million.

The hosting and infrastructure layers remain key battlefields for legitimacy and scale. The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), as the custodian of US$114 trillion worth of assets, has partnered with more than 40 financial companies to launch a trial of tokenized securities. In addition, Robinhood Chain has expressed ambitions to lead the way in tokenized stocks, but its trading volume has so far been driven mainly by memecoin-highlighting that the momentum of tokenized stocks may still rely on user acquisition that goes beyond the "stock" narrative itself.

Stability coin regulatory coordination and compliance timing

U.S. and UK authorities are seeking to agree on certain aspects of tokenized finance. The U.S. and U.K. Treasury have issued four joint recommendations on digital assets. The working group recommends that regulators consider private sector-led groups to test cross-border use cases for tokenized assets, while requiring U.S. financial institutions and the Bank of England to determine a common regulatory approach for tokenized assets. Regarding stablecoins, the statement stated that they "should be fully backed by high-quality, liquid assets in at least a one-to-one ratio," which is consistent with the structure of U.S. law.

However, what subsequently emerged was that U.S. regulators missed the Saturday rules-setting deadline for the Genius stablecoin Act. Missing the legal deadline will not invalidate the bill, but could shorten the time issuers have to comply before the January rule takes effect.

Focus on next steps

The coming weeks will determine whether the Clarity Act can overcome ethically-driven objections in the Senate, and the global model of forecasting markets and tokenized assets will depend on how regulators translate policy into enforcement action. Please pay attention to the voting timetable for the Clarification Act, France's subsequent enforcement of Polymarket restrictions, and the evolution of the compliance timeline after the delay in rule-making of the Genius Stabiloin Act.