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Dow Jones Industrial Average volatility tests Bitcoin's decoupling narrative

2026-07-21 12:32:18
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The Dow attracted investors 'attention on Monday, as the market fluctuated violently due to the collapse of artificial intelligence stocks and rising geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin (BTC) gained renewed attention as a potential safe-haven asset. Even with the weak performance of traditional stock indexes, inflows from spot ETFs remained strong. According to Reuters, Wall Street extended its decline on Friday, and the range of selling in stocks related to artificial intelligence widened, causing the index to end several consecutive weeks of gains.

What puts pressure on the road?

Two forces have jointly caused the traditional market to fall into a passive state. First, artificial intelligence chip stocks fell sharply last Thursday and Friday. Companies linked to the artificial intelligence boom-companies that drove most of the market's gains in 2026-gave back a significant portion of their earnings in just a few days. The S & P 500 closed slightly lower on Monday, trying to stabilize, rising just 0.4% after last week's decline.

Second, tensions between the United States and Iran have pushed up Brent crude oil prices. Rising oil prices have further dampened market sentiment, especially in energy-intensive industries. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that the geopolitical game has added unpredictable variables to the already tense market environment.

Chip stocks-including Nvidia-related stocks-were one of the biggest winners in 2026. Their pullbacks have forced fund managers to reassess how much the rebound during the year relies on a handful of artificial intelligence-related stocks.

How cryptocurrencies react

Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average faced selling pressure, the cryptocurrency market presented a different story on Monday. BlackRock's spot bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs recorded a combined net inflow of $343.4 million, recovering from an outflow phase early last week. The data came at a time when stocks remained fragile, and traders noted the contrast.

At the height of the artificial intelligence sell-off last week, Bitcoin did not fully decouple from the stock market. Amid widespread risk aversion last Friday, cryptocurrency prices fell along with stocks. But Monday's rapid recovery in ETF inflows suggested that institutional buyers saw the decline as a buying opportunity rather than an exit signal.

Predicted that the market has also experienced a surge in activity. Kalshi added 3 million new users and set a record for platform transaction volume during the World Cup period ending on Sunday. This increase reflects growing interest in financial instruments beyond traditional stock structures.

Currently, there is no clear answer to the question of the correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks. In short, during a sharp sell-off, Bitcoin tends to fall with risky assets. But over a longer time window, the correlation will weaken. This week's trend is in line with this historical pattern.

Artificial intelligence sell-off tests Bitcoin ETF demand

The selling of artificial intelligence chips that dragged down the Dow this week was not without warning. Earlier this month, several large artificial intelligence infrastructure stocks began to show fatigue after months of gains driven by data center spending forecasts. When Netflix's share price fell sharply and SpaceX canceled its starship launch last week, market confidence in high-price-to-earnings technology stocks deteriorated rapidly. Overall artificial intelligence trading, which once pushed the stock index to a record high in mid-2026, is no longer a support, but a source of selling pressure.

The Bitcoin ETF has shown its resilience in previous weeks, and after a brief outflow, institutional demand rebounded rapidly.

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