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ETH Ethereum has closed down for three consecutive quarters, setting the longest record in history.
In the past nine months, Ethereum has experienced a phenomenon unseen since its trading history in 2016: it fell by 28.28% in the fourth quarter of 2025, 29.26% in the first quarter of 2026, and 25.43% in the second quarter of 2026. This is the first time that Ethereum has closed down for three consecutive quarters since data was recorded. With the three quarters added together, Ethereum has fallen by approximately 62% since September 2025. The closest comparison is 2022, when Ethereum fell continuously in the first and second quarters, and then rebounded by 24% in the third quarter. But even in 2022, it will only fall for two consecutive quarters. This time it was three quarters.
What the third quarter data reveals
Historically, the third quarter was the weakest quarter for Ethereum, with a historical average increase of 7.44%, and a median return of 8.19%. This makes the next ten weeks more critical than the typical rebound window. If the historical pattern holds true, the third quarter will be the end of this consecutive downward trend. If it fails to stop falling, Ethereum will enter unknown territory that no historical model has touched.
As of June 30, the ETH/BTC ratio was at 0.0269, down about 16% against Bitcoin in a single quarter, after hitting a multi-year low around 0.0253 in early June. Ethereum is not only losing ground in dollar terms, but is also weakening against Bitcoin, indicating that its poor performance is structural rather than the result of overall market factors.
Three major catalysts that may turn things around
There are three factors worthy of attention. The "Glamsburg" upgrade plan, which cuts Gas fees by 78% and increases the speed by 10 times, has been postponed until the second half of 2026, making the most immediate bullish catalyst in the near future disappear from the calendar. If the CLARITY Act is passed, it will provide institutional investors with long-awaited regulatory clarity, with the market currently predicting a 42% probability of passage. In addition, the July 28 - 29 Fed meeting remains the biggest macro variable: leaving interest rates unchanged or cutting interest rates will remove one of the heaviest headwinds weighing on risky assets.
Currently, about 30% of Ethereum has been pledged, which is equivalent to locking in 35.8 million tokens from circulation supply. The supply side is more nervous than the price reflects, but the demand side needs a reason to enter. It is a fact that three consecutive quarters have fallen, but whether the fourth quarter will come is the only important question at the moment.
