Ethereum MVRV ratio approaches the golden cross, and key price areas emerge

Ethereum's MVRV ratio is approaching the golden cross, and key price areas emerge.

Ethereum is approaching a potential turning point. Its MVRV ratio is about to break through the 160-day moving average, forming a bullish cross. Technical analysts believe that this pattern, known as the "golden cross", has previously heralded a major shift in the price trend of the world's second-largest cryptocurrency.

The Ethereum MVRV ratio shows a golden cross

The MVRV ratio is an indicator that compares the market value of Ethereum with its realized value, and uses it by analysts to determine whether assets are undervalued relative to historical cost bases. Well-known market analyst Ali pointed out that the daily MVRV ratio is tending to exceed its 160-day simple moving average (SMA). In the past, similar signals were often accompanied by the end of market panic and a new round of accumulation by investors.

According to Ali Charts data, the MVRV momentum indicator helps track changes in overall holder earnings relative to the long-term trend line. Historically, daily MVRV ratios breaking through the 160-day moving average have often marked a major recovery for Ethereum.

In the past three years, Ethereum has entered a period of sustained price recovery whenever the MVRV ratio breaks this threshold. The current technology pattern comes after a long period of sellers dominating the market and Ethereum prices continue to be sluggish.

Small Dictionary: The MVRV ratio, the ratio of market value to realized value, is a blockchain analytical indicator used to evaluate whether cryptocurrencies are overvalued or undervalued relative to their total purchase cost, thus indicating a potential market top or bottom.

Analysts identify key Ethereum price range

Market observer Ted Pillows noted that a liquidity cluster has formed between $1870 and $1900. Pillows said Ethereum may re-test this range given recent signs of correction in the market. He believes that if Ethereum successfully breaks through this area, it is expected to move towards higher resistance levels of $1980 and $2000.

Ted Pillows pointed out that after potentially clearing the $1870 to $1900 area, Ethereum may welcome new buying interest, making it expected to rebound towards $1980 and $2000.

As of the time of publication, data showed that the Ethereum trading price was US$1,898.54, and the 24-hour trading volume was US$9.53 billion. The token has dropped 1.10% in the past 24 hours, but has gained 1.61% weekly, indicating that despite overall weakness, there has been some recovery.

Ethereum is still below its realized value and undervalued relative to Bitcoin.

Blockchain analysts report that Ethereum is currently trading at about 17% lower than its realized price of US$2304. Historically, Ethereum's performance below its cost base has often coincided with the formation of a market bottom and the timing of a potential rebound. Current prices place Ethereum in the lower half of its realized price range.

Compared to Bitcoin, the MVRV ratio of ETH/BTC trading pairs has fallen back to approximately 0.65 from a high of near 0.95 in August 2025. Although still above the previous cyclical low of 0.45, this suggests that Ethereum is cheaper compared to Bitcoin.

Key data comparison:

Current price of Ethereum: US$1,898.54

Realized price: US$2304

ETH/BTC MVRV ratio: approximately 0.65 (0.95 in August 2025, historical low of 0.45)

ETH/BTC exchange inflow ratio: approximately 0.8 (Recent peak is above 1.5, historical low is 0.4)

ETH/BTC ETF position ratio: 0.13 (June: 0.115)

ETH/BTC Weekly spot trading volume: approximately 0.5 (previously 1.75)

Selling pressure between Ethereum and Bitcoin is showing signs of easing, as reflected in the ETH/BTC exchange inflow ratio falling from above 1.5 to near 0.8. At the same time, institutional interest appears to be picking up. The ETH/BTC ETF position ratio rebounded to 0.13 from 0.115 in June. Spot trading volume between the two dropped sharply from 1.75 to about 0.5, indicating a decrease in market activity.

The analyst agency emphasized that of the five signals tracked, two indicate that Ethereum may be near the bottom, while the rest show gradual improvement.