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ETH Market analysis: Ethereum's valuation has become more attractive, but on-chain data shows that the bottom has not yet been confirmed.
According to CryptoQuant analysis, from a valuation perspective, Ethereum is becoming more and more attractive, especially compared to Bitcoin. However, on-chain data shows that the market has not yet reached a clear bottom of the cycle.
The analyst firm pointed out in its latest weekly report that Ethereum is currently trading at approximately US$2,300, which is approximately 17% lower than its realized price, which is the average on-chain acquisition cost of all ETH in circulation. From historical data, when ETH prices are lower than their realized prices, it often corresponds to the formation stage of market undervaluation and long-term bottoms.
In addition, Ethereum also shows signs of improvement relative to Bitcoin. CryptoQuant said that ETH's market capital-to-realized value ratio has fallen from extreme overvaluation, exchange inflows have fallen, exchange-traded fund positions have begun to recover after months of weakness, and ETH/BTC spot trading volume has also fallen to a range related to the historical market bottom.
CryptoQuant pointed out that two of its five key ETH floor indicators have been confirmed. Source: CryptoQuant
Even so, only two of CryptoQuant's five bottom indicators have reached historical reversal levels. While remaining indicators are improving, they have not yet hit the extremes of previous cyclical lows, suggesting that a bottom for Ethereum may still be forming.
The report came as Ethereum broke through $1,950 this week, driven by optimism about the US CLARITY Act, and Bitcoin stood at $67,000. At the same time, some market analysts pointed out that funds may be rotated back into the cryptocurrency market from overvalued artificial intelligence stocks. If risk appetite expands, this shift may provide further support for Ethereum.
The MVRV ratio of ETH/BTC has dropped from nearly 0.95 in August 2025 to approximately 0.65, indicating that Ethereum has become significantly cheaper compared to Bitcoin. Source: CryptoQuant
Positive signals on the Ethereum chain, and supply continues to tighten
In the past month, Ethereum has shown multiple positive signals on the chain. In the week of June 29, withdrawal activity at Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, rose to its highest level in more than three years.
Analysts typically interpret continued outflows of exchange funds as signs that investors are moving assets to self-custody or pledge rather than retaining them for sale on the exchange-although such outflows do not guarantee subsequent accumulation.
At the same time, according to Staking Rewards data, 34% of Ethereum's current circulation supply has been pledged, setting a record high. Higher pledge participation rates reduce the amount of ETH in the market that can be traded at any time, which may help alleviate short-term selling pressure if demand remains resilient.
As the largest enterprise-level ETH holder, Tom Lee's Bitmine Immersion Technologies continues to increase its holdings in Ethereum. Despite facing huge unrealized losses, the agency increased its holdings by 325,000 ETH in a month and plans to target holding 5% of the total supply of the second-largest cryptocurrency.
