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ETH Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart
Although Ethereum has shown signs of stabilization in the past few weeks, Ethereum is still under pressure over a higher time frame. Daily structures continue to trade below key moving averages, while the 4-hour chart shows buyers are trying to build higher lows above key support areas. On-chain data also continues to provide positive background, and exchange balances continue to decline.
The daily chart shows that Ethereum is currently trading at around $1860 after a June sell-off, when prices were once pushed down to the main demand area of about $1500. Although this support area has managed to stem the decline, the broader trend has not yet turned decisively in favor of the bulls.
After the recent breakthrough, asset prices were slightly above the upper trend line of the long-term downtrend channel. However, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain above, indicating that sellers still control the structure of the higher time frame. Recent tests of a 100-day moving average near $2000 have been rejected, leaving Ethereum trapped under multiple technical obstacles.
The first resistance level is around the US$2000 supply area, which is also where key moving averages converge. The stronger area of resistance is around $2400, which suppressed attempts to rebound in April. To show that the broader downtrend is losing momentum, these levels need to be regained.
ETH/USDT 4-hour chart
Lower time frames present a more constructive picture. Since its rebound in early July, Ethereum has been hitting higher highs and higher lows while respecting an uptrend line (white) that continues to support gains.
However, after being rejected from the upper boundary of the rising channel (yellow), assets have fallen back to the white trend line, where buyers are currently stepping in. These trend lines form a short-term upward wedge, and the short-term bullish structure remains intact as long as prices remain above the lower boundary and the $1750 support area.
The next target for the bulls is to test again the recent highs of around $1900 to $1950. Decisive breakthroughs in this area and channel could open the way to the US$2000 daily supply area.
On the other hand, a break below the white uptrend line will weaken the short-term structure and increase the possibility of a deep correction to $1750, with $1700 and $1600 being the next support levels worth watching.
On-chain analysis
Exchange supply ratios continue to fall, and despite a lengthy correction period for Ethereum, the indicator still hits a new low. The indicator measures the proportion of ETH held by centralized exchanges, and a drop in readings usually indicates that tokens are leaving the exchange and being moved to private wallets or long-term storage.
The continued decline suggests that seller liquidity available on exchanges continues to shrink. Historically, continued exchange outflows have often reflected increased investor confidence and reduced immediate selling pressure.
Although this in itself does not guarantee a price reversal, the chain background looks much healthier than the current price structure. If demand starts to strengthen while exchange balances remain low, reduced available supply could provide additional support for a broader recovery after Ethereum overcomes its key technical resistance.
