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BTC Bitcoin's four-year cycle may be giving way to macro drives
Bitcoin's familiar four-year boom and bust rhythm may be weakening. As circulation shrinks, institutional demand increases, and macro liquidity changes, these factors are gradually becoming the dominant force driving the market. Chain analyst Willy Woo pointed out on Thursday that Bitcoin could eventually move closer to the six to eight-year short-term debt cycle that affects traditional financial markets. His core argument is that the strength of Bitcoin's internal supply shocks has become too weak to dominate price movements as they did in the past.
This debate comes at a particularly critical juncture. Bitcoin has rebounded strongly from its lows in 2026. After rising by about 25% in August, its recent trading price is in a high range of more than $70,000, but it is still far below the historical record of more than $126,000 set in October 2025.
The economic weight of the halving effect is declining
Historically, Bitcoin's four-year cycle has been closely associated with "halving" events. The halving occurs about every four years, cutting miners 'rewards by 50%. Coinpaper's halving guide explains how this process reduces new bitcoin traffic and has historically coincided with major market cycles.
Woo believes that although the halving mechanism still exists, its economic influence is fading. Annual circulation currently accounts for only nearly 0.8% of supply, and the next halving is expected to further reduce this ratio.
Fidelity Digital Assets has reached similar broader conclusions. In February, the company noted that reduced volatility, expanding market value and deeper institutional involvement in Bitcoin may mean that the classic four-year cycle is becoming less important. Wells Fargo Digital Assets pointed out that as of earlier this year, exchange-traded products (ETFs) and large listed companies together held nearly 12% of the bitcoins in circulation.
ETF fund flows and Fed policies are reshaping the market
Recent price movements provide some support for Woo's view. Bitcoin's rebound in August was not just due to scarcity, but was driven by a combination of liquidity in the government bond market, falling yields, short covering and a sharp recovery in institutional demand for ETFs. Coinpaper tracking data showed that Bitcoin ETF inflows in August were approximately US$3.52 billion, the strongest monthly total in 2026.
These capital flows create a channel of demand that did not exist during Bitcoin's early halving cycle.
At the same time, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to monetary policy. Recent reports from Coinpaper showed that BTC prices fell below $77,000 after the Federal Reserve sent hawkish signals that led to a stronger dollar and pushed up yields. This is what Woo believes is a reflection of the macro dependence that may eventually replace halving as the dominant factor in Bitcoin.
Four-year cycle has not ended yet
However, the opposition remains strong. Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, about 18 months after the halving event in April 2024, which roughly coincides with previous peak windows after halving. Subsequent pullbacks also resemble the behavioral characteristics of early cycles.
In addition, the number of market cycles completed by Bitcoin is too small to prove that the six to eight year structure has replaced the old model.
For now, the safer conclusion is not that the four-year cycle has disappeared, but that it may no longer be the only force that matters. Bitcoin transactions are increasingly influenced by traditional liquidity conditions, institutional investment portfolios and interest rate expectations. Coinpaper's report on Bitcoin's recent government-driven rebound has illustrated this shift.
If Woo is correct, the next Bitcoin cycle may ultimately be determined by credit and liquidity forces rather than programmed supply events. These forces also affect stocks, bonds and the broader global financial system.
