Bitcoin News Today: 5 major events may push BTC to rise to $100,000 or fall to $50,000

Bitcoin Price Analysis Today: Key Decisions in the Long and Short Game

Bitcoin's current price remains around US$79,000, in the middle of a tug-of-war between bullish signals on the chain and major macroeconomic calendars. Traders are paying close attention to five key events that may determine Bitcoin (BTC)'s next move over the next ten days. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of the technical aspects of the chart, the background of the Fed's policy and analysts 'expectations.

What is the current price of Bitcoin?

According to derivative data, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately US$79,129, up 0.57% within the day. Futures trading volume in the past 24 hours was close to US$55.65 billion, with open interest values of approximately US$53.85 billion.

The long and short ratio was 0.9778, which was basically flat. Among them, Binance and OKX exchanges showed slightly more position positioning. In the past 24 hours, the total market liquidation amount was approximately US$77.51 million, including US$57.52 million in long liquidations and US$19.99 million in short liquidations. This gap suggests that long positions are currently under greater pressure than short positions.

In addition, CoinGlass data shows that the broader 24-hour clearing totals more than US$251.69 million, involving more than 82,000 traders. The single largest clearing order was US$2.96 million in long clearing on Binance BTC/USDT trading pair.

Drivers of Bitcoin price volatility this week

Five catalysts have appeared one after another, each of which has a significant impact on Bitcoin's current and future price movements:

• September 10-Producer Price Index (PPI): If released producer price data is higher than expected, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance.
• September 11-Consumer Price Index (CPI): July's data was 3.4%. If the data here is strong, it will strengthen the possibility of interest rate adjustments.
• September 15-Resolution Act vote: The Senate will hold a procedural vote on the cryptocurrency market structure bill.
• September 16-Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Current market pricing shows that the probability of the target rate rising to the 375-400 basis point range is 60.4%, which is higher than the 39.6% probability of remaining in the 350-375 basis point range. A week ago, 63.2% were biased towards the higher range and 36.8% were below this range.
• September 18- Japan's Central Bank resolved: Japan's Central Bank's Should adopt a hawkish stance, it may impact the USD/JPY exchange rate and affect risky assets including Bitcoin.

Is Bitcoin forming a "golden cross"?

Yes, historical data gives bulls reason to pay attention to this signal. The last time there was a "golden cross" in Bitcoin, the bear market ended and the price of Bitcoin soared by more than 500%.

However, spot demand this time is relatively weak. Analysts pointed out that if the weekly closing firm above $83,000, it would open the door to hitting $100,000 before the end of the year.

Is Bitcoin building a bearish pattern?

Some analysts believe that the textbook-style bearish AMD model (accumulate, manipulate, distribute) is taking shape again, the same structure that runs through the entire bear market.

In this view, Bitcoin accumulated between US$58,000 and US$67,000, and then exploded towards US$80,000, reversing market sentiment and turning bullish. The move is seen as a "manipulation phase" and may not be over yet. The theory allows prices to be pushed further higher to $88,000 -92,000, at which time bullish sentiment could become extreme. But this is not the beginning of breaking through $100,000, but the final trap before the distribution. If the Clarity Act is delayed until 2030, the long-term goal under this scenario will be to pull back to the $50,000 area.

What is the "warm supply achieved price" signal?

Bitcoin has just regained its "Warm Supply Realized Price", the average cost basis of the last coin moved in the past week to six months.

Four major recoveries of this level in history were accompanied by increases of 69% in January 2023, 159% in October 2023, 74% in October 2024 and 34% in April 2025. Analysts marked this as another bullish signal for Bitcoin.

Does MACD confirm the bottom of Bitcoin?

Within the 12-day time frame, the current cycle exhibits the same characteristics as the previous cycle: there are 48 K-lines and a 569-day interval between the cycle high and the bullish MACD crossing. The MACD histogram is turning green and the double line is moving towards a bullish crossing.

This symmetry alone does not guarantee that a bottom has been established, but combined with the supporting performance of prices in the macro structure, some analysts regard it as a superposition of confirmation signals rather than conclusive evidence.

What is the target price for Bitcoin?

Based on a Fibonacci extension of the current cycle structure, the targeted bits include:

Target price Fibonacci level approximately US$96,000 Fib 0.702 approximately US$104,000 Fib 1.272 approximately US$129,000 Fib 1.414 approximately US$175,000 Fib 1.618215,000-384, Does the RSI of $,000 higher-cyclical expansion of Bitcoin send a warning signal?

A bearish divergence is forming on the Bitcoin chart. Prices may still sweep past $82,000 and hit higher highs, but the RSI has formed lower highs at every major recent high.

The bearish setting is activated after a break below the US$76,000 channel support is confirmed. If the price exceeds $84,000, the bearish argument will be weakened.

Can Bitcoin exchange balances predict prices?

At least not this summer. Exchange balances have increased by about 45,000 bitcoins since May 11, or an increase of about 3%, according to Santimony data, which is often seen as a bearish signal.

Prices moved exactly the opposite, and then reversed the trend. Bitcoin fell from about $81,700 to $58,562 on June 30, then recovered to about $78,700, roughly back to where it started. Throughout the process, even though prices fluctuated by 40% from low to high, the exchange's floating balance remained within a narrow range of approximately 54,000 coins, accounting for approximately 4% of total exchange holdings. As a result, exchange balances are not a reliable indicator of price forecasts this summer.

Does Bitcoin need the Clarity Act to rebound?

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes does not think so. He said the bill mainly benefits projects with huge legal budgets, is a tool to build a moat, and provides limited help to the real builders of the U.S. encryption field.

Hayes believes that Bitcoin has never needed the Clarity Act since its launch in 2009. In his view, what is more important is the Treasury's expansion of repurchase or the Federal Reserve's intervention to assist Japan in converting government bonds into cash. He attributed the recent rebound to markets 'awakening about U.S. debt problems and expectations of control of the yield curve. His recommendation to Trump is simple: veto the bill.

What is the flow of Bitcoin ETF funds today?

According to SoValue data, after a three-day trading window period, the Bitcoin ETF experienced an outflow of US$46.56 million, breaking the momentum of net inflows for three consecutive days.

Bitcoin price forecast: Will BTC hit US$100,000 or fall to US$50,000?

Bitcoin prices are at a crossroads. The weekly line closed firmly above $83,000. Supported by the history of a "golden cross", the recovery of warm supplies and the symmetry of the MACD cycle, the road to $100,000 remains open.

A break below $76,000, coupled with the Fed's hawkish stance and delays in the Clarity Act, would support a more cautious scenario, pointing to the $50,000 region. Data for the next ten days should provide real clear guidance in either case.

Disclaimer : This article is for reference only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and risky. Be sure to research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.