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BTC Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on the eve of the Fed's decision, and River predicts a price range of $250,000 to $840,000 in the next three to five years.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, fell below $80,000 ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision and the release of U.S. producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) data to be released this week. Although the short-term market is paying close attention to the impact of these macroeconomic data on Bitcoin, a noteworthy new scenario has emerged regarding the trend of BTC prices.
Surging institutional interest drives long-term bullish expectations
River, a financial institution focused on Bitcoin, pointed out in its latest analysis that Bitcoin prices are expected to reach between $250,000 and $840,000 in the next three to five years. According to River's research, this forecast is based on increased interest in Bitcoin among institutional investors and the trend of trillions of dollars in capital in traditional investment portfolios being shifted to Bitcoin.
The current proportion of investment remains extremely low
River reviewed Bitcoin's current penetration at the beginning of the analysis. Data shows that about 4% of the world's population holds Bitcoin. However, institutional investors 'allocation of Bitcoin in their portfolios remains very low. River pointed out that investment advisers only allocate approximately 0.008% of their total assets to Bitcoin.
Wall Street capital inflows are crucial
River analysts said their forecast is based on increased corporate adoption, particularly capital inflows from Wall Street. In this context, River calculated the size of capital inflows that might occur if 20% to 40% of the world's investment portfolio were invested in Bitcoin, and an average of 2% to 4% of Bitcoin was allocated in these portfolios. Under this scenario, they estimate that net capital inflows into Bitcoin will be between $1.3 trillion and $5.3 trillion.
How will capital flows reshape Bitcoin prices?
River analysts pointed out that based on historical data, they assumed that every dollar of net capital inflow in Bitcoin would add approximately $3 in market value growth. According to the company's calculations, capital inflows of $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion could push Bitcoin's total market value to approximately $5.5 trillion to $17.5 trillion.
In this scenario, the price of Bitcoin could reach between $250,000 and $840,000. River's top price scenario of $840,000 was based on an assumption of net capital inflows of approximately $5.3 trillion.
River also pointed out that the next major price fluctuation in Bitcoin cannot be explained solely by the behavior of investors in the cryptocurrency market. The company believes that the real decisive factor will be the extent to which investors in traditional finance include Bitcoin in their portfolios.
River analysts emphasized that the $840,000 figure is not a definite target price. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
