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BTC Bitcoin's long-term forecast attracts attention: River Institution proposes a target price of US$840,000
Bitcoin's long-term price trend continues to attract investors 'attention. River, a US-based financial company focused on bitcoin, presented a boldly optimistic scenario in its latest analysis: BTC is expected to reach $840,000 in three to five years. The prerequisite for achieving this forecast is that the total market value of Bitcoin needs to climb to US$17.5 trillion and the inflow of funds from Wall Street will increase significantly.
Why is Wall Street so important to Bitcoin?
River is a company engaged in automated Bitcoin purchases, escrow services, and building Bitcoin reserves. The company pointed out that institutional investors 'attitudes towards Bitcoin are undergoing important changes. Its analysts estimate that about 4% of the world's population owns Bitcoin; however, institutional investors, who manage about 50% of the world's financial assets, account for only a staggering 0.008% of Bitcoin in their portfolios.
River believes that the official launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF in 2024 is an important milestone in the institutional adoption process. Currently, Wall Street no longer advocates avoiding Bitcoin, but the market generally believes that large-scale capital has not yet shifted strongly to this digital asset class.
How does the global money pool affect Bitcoin?
The core basis of River's forecast is the huge global pool of financial assets. Analysts pointed out that the total size of global financial assets is approximately US$333 trillion. The key question is how much of this capital will flow to Bitcoin.
River evaluated the following possibilities:
- Conservative scenario: If 20% of global investors adopt Bitcoin and allocate 2% of their portfolio to BTC, approximately US$1.3 trillion could flow into the Bitcoin market.
- Medium scenario: If the adoption rate rises to 30%, and the allocation ratio reaches 3%, the inflow of funds could reach approximately US$3 trillion.
- Optimistic scenario: If the adoption rate reaches 40%, and the allocation ratio is 4%, the potential capital size is approximately US$5.3 trillion.
How much value-added effect can each dollar of investment bring?
River's analysis also includes a compelling assumption: every dollar of new capital entering the Bitcoin market increases its market value by approximately $3. This multiplier effect explains why price forecasts are at extremely high levels.
In a lower scenario, a capital inflow of US$1.3 trillion could push the total market value of Bitcoin to approximately US$5.5 trillion, corresponding to a BTC price of approximately US$250,000. In the most optimistic scenario, a net capital inflow of approximately US$5.3 trillion could increase the market value of Bitcoin to US$17.5 trillion. According to River calculations, this size is expected to push the price of Bitcoin to about $840,000.
When will Bitcoin reach US$840,000?
River does not expect the above scenario to materialize in the short term. Its forecast time window is set between 2029 and 2031. Therefore, the target price of $840,000 is not a direct price guarantee, but rather a demonstration of extremely optimistic outcomes that may occur under certain assumptions as institutional adoption increases and capital inflows increase.
Given that Bitcoin currently accounts for only a negligible proportion of Wall Street assets (0.008%), River believes that there is huge financial potential waiting to be released in the next few years.
Disclaimer : The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. The market is highly risky, please conduct independent research before making an investment decision.
