Bitcoin miners miss out on gains, exchanges and stablecoin companies lead

Bitcoin's rebound divides the cryptocurrency trading field into outperformers and laggards.

Since mid-August, Bitcoin's strong return has caused the entire cryptocurrency trading community to show obvious polarization. Since August 17, the price of Bitcoin has increased by almost 22%. Exchanges and stablecoin-related companies followed closely, but miners failed to perform at the same level.

The Block's "Data and Insight" analysis released on September 9 showed that among all mining companies, Canaan is the only organization committed to surpassing Bitcoin's performance. The other 10 miners and their related companies achieved only an average median gain of 1.8%, lagging behind Bitcoin's 22%, a gain of 20.2 percentage points.

This gap is more significant than it seems. According to Cryptopitan's calculations, since the average miner's return is 1.8%, while Bitcoin's gain is 22%, the average miner only captured 8.2% of Bitcoin's upside. For investors who previously viewed miners as a leveraged investment option for Bitcoin, this correlation has clearly weakened.

Areas where the divisions are most significant

The main laggards include miners who are keen on artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC). Core Scientific and TeraWulf lagged behind Bitcoin by 27% and 24%, respectively.

This transformation is changing the way the market values miners. According to estimates from Visible Alpha, a unit of S P Global Market Intelligence, by 2026, HPC is expected to account for approximately 71% of IREN and Core Scientific revenue, and 70% of TeraWulf's revenue.

However, AI also brings different risks. According to CNBC's crypto stock rebound report released at the end of July, despite the rise in shares of Coinbase, BitGo and Figure, Cipher Mining fell 8%, Riot Platforms fell 5%, and MARA Holdings fell 3%. Compass Point analyst Michael Donovan pointed out that financing AI infrastructure requires avoiding major dilutions and providing costly debt financing.

The economic logic of lagging

Although mining economics improved in August, it is still far from reaching acceptable levels.

According to Luxor's August computing power review report, Bitcoin prices rose by 24.5% in August, while the dollar hash price increased from $31.63 per PH/s/day to $39.33, an increase of 24.4%.

The problem is that it all starts from a very low starting point. The average hash price in August was only $34.63, still 32% lower than the 2025 monthly average of $50.68. Transaction fees only account for 0.70% of block rewards, which is the 14th consecutive month that block rewards have not exceeded 1%.

Even futures markets do not promise rapid improvement in mining operations. Luxor's contract data for September to February shows that the average hash price is $36.98, still about 27% lower than the 2025 average.

Therefore, even if Bitcoin remains strong, miners will still need help in the form of fee payments, network difficulty adjustments or reduced electricity prices to improve profit margins.

Selling different products

Exchanges and stablecoin issuers have an advantage that miners increasingly lack: they can profit from activities that do not directly rely on the production of Bitcoin.

Coinbase said that 88% of its second-quarter net income came from other than Bitcoin spot transactions. Its market share of cryptocurrency trading volume hit a record high of 10.3%, while the average USDC amount held in its products reached US$20 billion.

CEO Brian Armstrong briefly summarized this shift: "Coinbase is no longer just a bet on the price of Bitcoin." Circle reported that as of the end of the second quarter, USDC in circulation totaled $73.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, while total revenue and reserve income were $701 million.

Miners are also trying to diversify in their own way. CoinShares estimates that total cumulative AI and HPC contracts for open miners exceed US$70 billion, and listed operators are expected to generate up to 70% of revenue from their AI business by the end of the year.

Cryptopolitan tracked this transformation process, including MARA's $1.5 billion acquisition of Long Ridge and IREN's $3.4 billion cloud contract with Nvidia.

For the broader crypto market, this divergence suggests that capital is increasingly favoring companies that can monetize transactions, stablecoins and settlement infrastructure, while viewing mining as a capital-intensive business with both commodity attributes and AI execution risks.

The BIS points out that approximately 98% of the value of stablecoins is denominated in U.S. dollars. As these infrastructures expand, they may deepen the role of cryptocurrencies in global dollar settlements.