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BTC Bitcoin market dynamics: On-chain selling pressure eased, but exchange selling still prevailed.
Core points:
- Bitcoin prices fluctuated around US$78,200, blocked by a resistance range of US$80,000 to US$82,000.
- More than 71% of the circulation supply is in an unprofitable state.
- Glassnode data showed that the sell risk ratio fell to 7 basis points, down from a peak of 16 basis points in August.
- Despite a single-day outflow on September 8, the cumulative net inflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF this month reached US$723.5 million.
- Key economic data will be released (CPI) on September 11, followed by September 16 decisions by the Federal Reserve and Japan central bank.
Price Performance and Key Technical Bits
As of September 10, 2026, the Bitcoin trading price is close to US$78,200. Buyers successfully defended short-term support, but prices failed to break through the resistance zone of $80,000 to $82,000. The rally began with a bottoming out around $60,000 earlier this year and then regained $67,000 and the range of $72,000 to $74,000.
The current short-term support range lies between US$77,600 and US$77,900. If the price falls below US$77,000, it will further open up downside space.
On-chain data analysis: The proportion of profit-taking orders increased
On-chain data shows that more than 71% of the Bitcoin circulation supply is currently profitable, which is close to the historical average of 74.7%. By comparison, during the May consolidation period above $82,500, only about 67% of supply was profitable. The current high profit ratio means that if prices return to recent highs, more holders may choose to sell.
ETF Fund Flow
The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an outflow of US$46.6 million on September 8. The market has experienced a period of sharp volatility, including a single-day inflow of US$730.9 million on September 3. Despite the volatility, net inflows into American ETFs in the first five trading days of September were still approximately $723.5 million.
Signs of easing selling pressure on the chain
Glassnode's report on September 9 showed that Bitcoin's "Sell-Side Risk Ratio" has dropped to 7 basis points per day, down from its August peak of 16 basis points. Long-term holders achieved 47% of real profits in the latest data, well below the 88% peak in August.
In addition, approximately 1.07 million bitcoins were acquired in the price range of US$83,000 to US$86,000, mainly by long-term holders. In the past 30 days, the size of this position block has hardly changed.
Exchange selling pressure is still greater than buying
On September 8, the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta remained negative, indicating that even though the overall profit-taking trend cooled, exchanges were still selling more strongly than buying.
Macroeconomic background
Affected by the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran, oil prices climbed, and Brent crude oil prices exceeded US$100 per barrel. At the same time, the yen strengthened ahead of Japan's central bank's September 16 meeting, raising concerns about the yen carry trade.
The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on September 11. Markets expect headline inflation to be close to 3.4%, and the Federal Reserve's next meeting is scheduled for September 16.
